“Please, Sir, may I have some more?’’
So it’s 5 days out from the game, but might as well stick to the game plan and publish the preview on the Friday around 11.00am. I think both teams may actually go in unchanged!
Both clubs have copped a fair amount of criticism with the internal and external microscopes placed on these two famous clubs. Guess what? Out of adversity we got a response. Both clubs appear to play better when they are not expected to win! They seem to have no trouble when the heat is turned up? Essendon got beaten by a Fremantle team with four first gamers and a Bulldogs’ team on the bottom with 47%. So they respond, having beaten last year’s Grand Finalist and the undefeated Port Adelaide. The Pies are in a period where they have sat outside a finals position for close to 60 games. It’s a club record nobody would want. It was Round 15, 2015 that a Buckley coached team was in ‘the 8’. The Dons finals history in the short, medium and long term is poor. The confidence levels around Essendon all week were high, as they genuinely believed they had Port’s measure.
So that’s behind us; for both sets of supporters, let’s hope so. Ok, we know all this, but we do need a reminder about the real significance of this game. I’m not talking about the reverence of ANZAC Day… I’m going to stick to the footy. It is 10th v 11th and one of these two teams backs up a really good performance with a win. Both teams are coming off very good form. The Pies went to Adelaide and won, and the Dons were never going to lose from the first contested ball, where Port Adelaide shanked their drive off the tee. The possibilities of either team then going on with it are real. The Dons will face Melbourne and the Pies head to the Sunday against the Tigers. One side will be in the eight on Wednesday evening.
Very good game this one! Yes, I want some more of what both clubs served up last week.
Review Essendon v Port Adelaide
As I said last week, Essendon’s chart highlighted a complete lack of work rate. So what changed on the stats sheet?
Essendon highlights to me were:
- Inside 50’s Conceded
- = Scores Conceded ( Funny about that)
- Contested Possessions up
- Marks against in Forward 50m for Port
- The big one is uncontested marks. Against the Dogs 140 conceded. Against Port 58!
Talk about systems, structures, roles and rhetorical answers in press conferences all you like. No circus acts, and getting down and dirty. Great to see a bit of old-fashioned stuff about the Dons. It was good, basic football. Strong, compact and organised. They have enough talent to perform the odd circus act but unfortunately that’s become a bit of a standard. Essendon has to stop the novelty footy and just turn up each week and apply themselves to football’s never changing basics. Even in these modern times, it’s so important to be consistent in strong basics.
Week to week
One week the Dons have the stats of a bottom 4 team. The next week their figures can be elite. Look at the numbers against the Dogs and then 7 days later they produce the Port stats. In a way it’s great. On the other side of the coin, it is second-rate. Because they are so inconsistent their ball movement patterns vary (or break down) from week to week.
I guess we await ANZAC Day outcomes. But having said that, I predict that both teams are going to turn on an excellent display on this great occasion.
| Statistic | Numbers | Comment | Versus Port one week later | |
| Stoppages | 10-22 | Average | 32-25 | Good |
| Centre Clearances | 17-8 | Excellent | 13-15 | Fair |
| Inside 50 | 44 | Poor | 57-47 | Excellent |
| Inside 50 Against | 56 | Average | 47 | Excellent |
| Score Conceded | 34 shots 100+ | Poor | 12.12.84 | Excellent |
| Marks Inside 50 | 13 | Average | 11-11 | Good |
| Tackles | 43 | Poor | 64-61 | Very good |
| Contested Possession | 124-122 | Level | 144 | Very Good |
| Scores by Turnovers | WB 9.17.71 | Poor | ||
| Marks against Forw.50 | 23 | Poor | 11 | Good |
| Uncontested marks | WB took 140 CM | ***Unacceptable | 58 to Port | Outstanding |
| Uncontested Possess. | Minus 100 | ***Unacceptable | Plus 25 | Very Good |
Interchanges.
The Dons used up 89/90 allowed while Port only used 75/90. Surely when you travel you need free legs hitting the ground continually. Not sure what Kenny’s interchange steward was up to there! If you are a travelling team on a fast deck against a quick team (Essendon) you have to spend every cent and keep the running power full on through rotations.
LAST FIVE ANZAC DAY GAMES TIMES
| 2013 | Essendon | 18.13 (121) | 10.15 (75) | David Zaharakis | 93,373 |
| 2014 | Collingwood | 8.12 (60) | 12.11 (83) | Dane Swan | 91,731 |
| 2015 | Collingwood | 6.13 (49) | 9.15 (69) | Paul Seedsman | 88,395 |
| 2016 | Collingwood | 11.7 (73) | 22.10 (142) | Steele Sidebottom | 85,082 |
| 2017 | Essendon | 15.10 (100) | 11.16 (82) | Joe Daniher | 87,685 |
The Medical Room
Levi Greenwood and Josh Smith due to return. Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore and Taylor Adams have been ruled out of the ANZAC Day clash while Daniel Wells made it through his VFL return last weekend. Any chance, Wells?
James Stewart left the ground late in the last quarter but the extended break will see him 100%. Mitch Brown was a late withdrawal from the clash against the Power and Justin Crow’s news was not as positive for the key defender. He will miss 4 weeks with a calf tear. Patrick Ambrose played a full game with a guard and had no trouble with his recovering wrist, but is set for another week on the sidelines after suffering a suspension. Matt Dea misses 1-2 with a leg injury.
Selection
Quite an extended break between games and teams may get players back. The Pies will be sweating on Elliott, Moore and Adams especially. Interesting selection coming up for Essendon as after Collingwood they face 3 matches in 14 days. Collingwood have chosen to hold some back for their Richmond encounter. Both teams are very confident with their line-up. Essendon can’t play McKenna, so should stick with young Guelfi, who had a very encouraging game and deserves another shot. Reward? A huge crowd for his second game.
Young midfielders Sier and Daicos are in very good VFL form and are probably at the front of the queue if the Pies make any changes. Forward-turned wingman Chris Mayne and key defender Brody Mihocek are also tracking well, according to afl.com. The Bombers could have looked to bring in Patrick Ambrose for his first game of the season after a wrist injury, but he was suspended for a match in his VFL return. Midfielder Dylan Clarke (40 disposals) and half-back Jordan Ridley (27 disposals) are really moving towards a senior spot.
Early Statistical Analysis
Week 4-6 will usually give you a very good a mathematical sample of trends, but given one team is 3-0 and the other is 1-2 do the basic stats give us an early indication as to how each are tracking. Centre Clearances are up to AFL standard but contested work, general clearances and stoppages and Inside 50’s, points against and conceding Inside 50’s are tracking in a similar theme to 2017.
| STATISTIC | ESSENDON | COLLINGWOOD |
| Disposals | 11th | 1st |
| Marks | 9th | 13th |
| Tackles | 8th | 3rd |
| Tackles Inside Forw.50 | 13th | 7th |
| Goals | 7th | 10th |
| Contested Possessions | 13th | 2nd |
| Uncontested Poss. | 9th | 7th |
| Disposal Effectiveness | 8th | 10th |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5th | 16th |
| Clearances | 17th | 2nd |
| Centre Clearances | 2th | 14th |
| Stoppages | 18th | 1st |
| Handballs | 1st | 9th |
| Points Against | 381 | 330 |
| Inside 50’s | 14th (51.4) | 8th (54.8) |
“It will be won in the midfield”
I usually refer to this as a cop out by commentators and special comments people that turn up with no research or homework. Do you know there are a lot of games NOT WON IN THE MIDFIELD!
Don’t forget scoring sources come from defence (52.7 points per game) now so games are going to be won by teams with the best forward pressure so as to negate the rebound and give themselves the best chance to score. Likewise teams must navigate through that ‘press’.
Unfortunately for Essendon, their recent improvement and dominance out of the centre square does reflect on league scoring sources of 9.2 points per game form straight clearances. Certainly back half sources must be strong. They certainly have the Pies in this area (centre Clearances) although Collingwood clearances and stoppage work around the ground is 2nd and 1st in the competition. Essendon must score from Centre Clearances.
But today I change…..It WILL be won in the midfield. But CAN they win it in the midfield?
Grundy/Cox
Crisp, Sidebottom, Pendlebury , Phillips, Aish, Treloar, De Goey, Thomas
Secondary: Varcoe, Brown
versus
Bellchambers/Stewart/Daniher
Merrett, Zaharakis, Smith, Myers, Heppell, Goddard, Parish
Secondary: Fantasia, McGrath and maybe Stringer. (Ok…not Stringer!!)
The explosive speed away from stoppages by Treloar is a real point of difference. I think Grundy, Treloar, Pendlebury and Sidebottom shade Bellchambers, Heppell , Merrett and Goddard/Smith. But do Pies have the Dons’ midfield depth? It appears the Dons bat a bit deeper, while the Pies have the four man class edge. Last week the ultra-impressive- yet significantly under rated- Steele Sidebottom took Rory Sloane to the cleaners. Does he go to Merrett and use his football smarts to ‘tag’ and work off? This was a great risk by Buckley that paid off. He put his most creative and cleverest player to the opposition mid field dynamo. Without the Crouch brothers a poor day from Sloane meant a Pies win.
Or does it just come down to:
Brody Grundy and Adam Treloar v Tom Bellchambers and Zach Merrett.
Collingwood boasts four players in the top 40 of AFL Player Ratings: skipper Scott Pendlebury (No. 3), Adam Treloar (No. 9), Brodie Grundy (No. 20) and Steele Sidebottom (No. 40) – while Essendon has just one, Zach Merrett (No. 27). It’s that class issue that worries me from an Essendon perspective.
“I’d pay to see that”
Treloar v Merrett or Heppell v Pendlebury? Doubt it. NO, folks, you want to be on the Jaidyn Stephenson v Andrew McGrath match up. Last year NAB Rising Star versus last week’s 5 goal Rising Star nomination. They have serious history.
The date is September 2016. TAC Cup Elimination Final. Eastern Ranges (Stephenson) v Sandringham Dragons (McGrath). Stephenson cuts loose on Dragons full back Ari Sakeson. He has 3 goals to half time and kicks his 4th early in the 3rd quarter. He is the difference! Dragons move McGrath onto Stephenson. Stephenson no more goals and only one HB in the last quarter. Dragons come from behind to snatch victory by 2 points. Stephenson 4 goals in basically a half of football. McGrath 29 possessions and 7 clearances. McGrath is the year older, Stephenson taller. This is the match up I’d pay to see! It’s going to happen.
Summary and Tip
The Pies forward line is unusual. Reid, Cox, Hoskin- Elliott, Crocker De Goey. But they have a young gun in Jaidyn Stephenson also. The Dons have reverted back to their traditional structures with their All Australian’s playing in position. Both Hooker and Hurley are flexible so both can be thrown forward. Essendon are now very balanced and settled down the spine, AND in defence and attack. Hurley’s article on playing with Hooker in Herald Sun 19/4/2018 was significant.
While the competition is kicking the ball more with the highest kick to HB ration since 2007, the Pies are starting to handball and run. They are handballing more than any other team. They have somewhat overcome their inconsistent build up play by run HB and kick much longer. It’s a big shift from the indecision of 2017. Both sides’ pressure was good but the Pies have been more consistent in this area. The Dons two from two have been chalk and cheese.
Essendon’s scoring sources are still set up from the back half. So this game will be about Collingwood’s strength (creating turnovers in the forward half. #1 in comp) versus Essendon’s strength, which is scoring from the BACK half. This is a great contrast and if both teams cancel each other out in this area then it WILL be a case of “it will be won in the midfield”. If Collingwood take away Essendon’s ball movement off HBF and cause those far too regular indecisive ball moving patterns, the Pies will get home courtesy of their four A Graders in Grundy, Sidebottom, Treloar and Pendlebury. Essendon score better-Collingwood defend better.
If both clubs can play to their strengths it will be a great game. This game has everything. Even the respective Chairmen have their own strengths. From the flamboyant and entrepreneurial Edward McGuire to the AFL’s silent man, Lindsay Tanner.
I’m thinking the Dons by under 10 points courtesy of a settled forward structure and with a defence (now Hooker and Hurley in tandem) that can hold this new look Pies’ forward line.
Essendon 14.10. 94 Collingwood 12.14.86
Robert Shaw 20/04/18
Shawry_Analyst 