If the 2018 AFL Finals were decided by Injury Lists alone?

 Injuries and Fitness Tests to decide September

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has a favourite saying: “When you lose one solider, you replace him with another one’.

We won’t know for sure until selection later on tonight (Wednesday) and Thursday night, but his theory is going to be put to the test.

Recurrence?

The first round of the finals gets underway on Thursday 6^th September, with the salivating contest between the Tigers and the Hawks. In this speculative article, I’m taking nothing else into consideration apart from the size and the quality of the respective injury lists. Given the very even nature of the competition maybe injuries will, in fact, have the final say.  We saw the influence of the Bye in 2016 with the Dogs regaining key personnel and mounting a magnificent finals’ campaign. The Tigers benefited also in that it allowed their coaches to hone their manic forward pressure (like the Dogs) that led to the 2017 premiership. The Tigers were fit and fresh, and will follow the same path this year.

Social media is generally full of early season speculation about ‘look at our best 22’ or games (as I call them) suggesting you name your best 22. Such a wasted activity as we look back in hindsight over the course of 2018. Does anyone put their best 22 on the field? So just a little exercise to see what influence injuries will have this September. There will be many intangibles, some luck, plenty of courage, some heroes will stand up and the coaches will have a significant impact in their respective teams’ tactics and strategies, particularly during the course of the game. Particularly as momentum in finals can change constantly.

He’s back and he’s important

So this is how I see the first week of the finals, considering nothing else other than injuries and fitness tests 

Richmond v Hawthorn Thursday September 6^th

For the Hawks, Frawley, Birchall, Howe, Sicily and Rioli are key outs at this stage. Birchall was hopeful of continuing in the VFL, but has had a setback while the break has really assisted Frawley, tagger Howe, and the critical Sicily.  They will give themselves every chance to be selected. Rioli is the only ‘definite’ to miss. Strong squad coming back from injury, but can’t afford to play too many underdone.

For the Tigers, Kane Lambert is very close, and as predicted Damien Hardwick has backed him in. Dan Butler played VFL and will be considered while premiership hero Townsend is the only one definitely out.

This game is also very close with injury availability.

But the injury factor sees Tigers by under 18 points in a great game.

Hogan’s heroes?

Melbourne v Geelong Friday 7^th

Mitch Hannan, Jesse Hogan, Jayden Hunt, Dean Kent, Jake Lever, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince and Jack Viney are- on their day- more than capable of being in Melbourne’s best 22. Viney will return and will play well first up fresh.  But he has missed a lot of football. Kent and Tyson have significant injuries while Hunt and Hannan are tests over the bye. The Demons are playing good solid ‘finals type’ football, so not sure the bye helps with momentum. Unlucky with injury. Can Dom Tyson get up after 10 days after surgery from a broken arm?

The Cats, on the other hand,  are very fit.

Nakia Cockatoo (season) is definitely finished while Coach Chris Scott believes Rhys Stanley is “optimistic” to think he’ll be in the frame for the elimination final, despite a running session on Saturday morning.

Injury Factor see Cats win this against a determined Demons outfit by 1-39

Different players but will be missed

 

GWS v Sydney  Saturday 8^th September (afternoon)

GWS will have no Shaw to organise the defence, and no big body of Simpson in the ruck. Corr, Griffen, De Boer, Greene, Delidio are all to undertake tests, listed as available and will have missed a considerable amount of football. If they all get up, GWS will most likely play them and have one big crack at the Swans. Patton, Scully and Setterfield are finished.

The sorry tale of Alex Johnson continues. Mills has been a long term injury as has ruckman Naismith. The important Nick Smith is still some weeks away and they will have to make a decision on the fitness of Sam Reid who is recovering from an achilles injury. He doesn’t play a lot of footy but his versatility in forward, ruck and back can release some pressure. Melican’s hamstring will be tested. Lance Franklin returns fit and fresh to take on GWS captain Phil Davis.

Another loss for the Swans on their homeground is on the cards but Injury Factor will see Sydney get up at home by 1-18 points.

Treloar charges to the line ….but Nic Not

WCE v Collingwood. Saturday 8^th September (evening)

Collingwood have had the worst injury list in the competition. Certain outs are Tim Broomhead, the important Dunn and Scharenberg in defence, Jamie Elliott and Daniel Wells. So there is certainly some ability not available. The Pies will test Adam Treloar , Hoskin-Elliott, Howe, Ben Reid and Darcy Moore. It’s a very extensive list either out for the season or critical fitness tests in the week of the bye. Two of them represent key pillars of Collingwood’s defence ( Dunn and Scharenberg) and the genuine class of Wells, Elliott and Treloar. Howe is structurally so important, but has been held back by a nasty corky. It is an extraordinary effort to finish 3^rd on the ladder with that injury list. Sends a good message to many clubs about perseverance through adversity. Great coaching effort from Bucks. Adam Treloar might be pushed out to play and the Pies will have one big crack at a Perth upset. Sadly , Travis Varcoe is yet to be confirmed.

The Eagles front up without their two most influential in Nick Naitanui and winger Gaff. Former captain Eric Mackenzie will miss. Lewis Jetta and key forward Josh Kennedy benefited from the bye.

Home ground and injury list says WCE

Injury Factor = WCE by over 4 goals.

So Week 2 of the AFL Finals series will see:

WCE and Tigers into Preliminary Finals. GWS and Melbourne eliminated.

Semi Final #1 Friday Night Hawks v Cats at MCG

Semi Final #2 Saturday Night Pies v Swans at MCG

Preliminary Finals

How would you like Tigers v Pies in Prelim #1 and Eagles v Cats in Prelim #2

Grand Final

Richmond v WCE

 

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has a favourite saying: “When you lose one solider, you replace him with another one’.

Time for the soldiers to stand up

 

Port Adelaide v Essendon Round 23 Friday 24th August 7.50 Adelaide Oval

A very BIG thank you Part 1.

You would be right if you get the impression that I love writing about football. I’d watch two-three live games a week juggling my school commitments. I really enjoy the analysis part of the game, and while I haven’t got full access to club stats, I try to piece together as much information as I can through observing the game. Naturally, many of my readers are Essendon people as I am able to distribute my WordPress articles through my Twitter account @shawry_analyst. I have enjoyed the interaction with followers from all clubs, and while there is a natural slant to ‘how can Essendon win?’, I hope my articles have been unbiased and pragmatic.

Thank you all for the feedback and discussion. It is with great disappointment that I will be finishing the articles this week and, sadly, not writing about an Essendon finals campaign.

Thanks to Glenn Luff from Champion Data, the stats and article crew at afl.com, experienced opposition analyst Dave Dunbar, for his independent insights, and to the glue that keeps it all together and eliminates my basic grammar errors, my proof reader.

It’s been a labour of love writing about the footy week in, week out and I hope I’ve been able to give you some insights into the strategies behind the game.

Yours sincerely,

Shawry

 

Played one of the great finals’ games

A very big thank you Part 2.

BJ Goddard

Brendon Goddard will see out his time at Essendon in this final game of the year. It is uncertain if he will go on. It seems harsh given his form and stoic service through great difficulty. Essendon have based this on the future, given the availability of Gleeson, Francis, Redman, Begley and Ridley to fill similar roles. The Dons have to find positions in the seniors for developing and exciting talent. Very difficult emotionally, but as a list management issue, it has to be done. I’m unsure what ‘blindsided’ means as I can not imagine the likes of John Worsfold, Xavier Campbell and Dan Richardson being anything but ‘totally up front’. Especially for this bloke, after what he has given.

Very well played, Brendon, under incredibly difficult circumstances. I loved your passion, animated responses, exacting standards and intensity. I know you cared. That’s all a supporter (past player) can ask…you cared and it meant something.

 

A Wasted Year?

‘Wasted year’ has been used, but is definitely the wrong term.

The definition of ‘wasted’ is: used or expended carelessly or to no purpose.

It cannot be said that Essendon did not lack purpose after Round eight….so some positives:

• The ability to adjust and stabilise without Joe Daniher
• Covering a medium injury list and actually improving
• Week 8-18 second best team in the competition (positive and negative)
• McKernan stepping forward
• Bellchambers standing up
• Smith’s brilliant recruitment
• Hooker and Hurley stabilise as key talls
• McKenna improvement
• Reality check for Parish, then he lifts
• Heppell leads and lifts
• Redman, Ridley, Francis and Begley; youthful all-rounders
• Internal reality that Defensive Integrity is paramount, balanced with natural attacking flair
• Sustainable game plan if played correctly and consistently
• Winning interstate
• Guelfi positive low key draft selection
• Stringer and Saad good when they settled in
• Baguley move forward as goal kicking defensive forward
• Assembling the Under 25 list #1 in comp. Now develop it!
• Fantasia emerges as one of best high half forwards in comp
• Beat Adelaide-Port-Geelong-Sydney-WCE-Giants-North Melbourne

 

First from the coach, John Worsfold

“We’ve worked extremely hard this year on bringing through some young players, we’ve worked hard on covering some injured players, on changing our game to become a team that is going to be able to take on the best teams in the competition and win. We’ve won on the road and we’ve done a lot of good things this year. We’ve worked really hard, so I would say the hard work is going to be rewarded. It will be rewarded. Therefore, hard work and passion and growth is not necessarily a waste. I’d challenge anyone to say that if you go and work your backside off, that it’s going to be wasted. For those people who just want to measure it on that we didn’t play in the finals, then yes, we missed the finals. You can label that how you want, I’m comfortable with that.”

From the senior player, David Zaharakis

Zaharakis believes the Bombers have come a long way this year and learned a lot about what they stand for. “We’re just focused on the way we’re playing. I’m getting annoyed at people saying it’s a wasted season if we don’t make it,” he said. “We’ve taken massive steps forward this year, especially in terms of the last 10 weeks with our identity as a side. We know that we’re a pressure and contest side and if we get that right, then we can beat most teams on any day.”

From the writer…..me!

In such an even competition Essendon have definitely squandered a great opportunity to compete for the 2018 premiership. While there are definite positives and season highlights, Essendon sitting in the grandstand watching September action (with that list) is difficult to comprehend.  Great jam donuts in September, that’s about all. Needs tough internal review because in the short term (2018) WCE, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Collingwood and North Melbourne all moved past Essendon on this year’s ladder. The club should not be content. Setting unconditional standards is a start. A harder, tougher and more ruthless edge across the whole club would not go astray.

 

Port, Essendon ….we need to have a quiet word!

Unfortunately, the facts are there that Essendon join Port and Adelaide as the big ‘sliders’ in the competition. So much talent.

Port 5^th to 9^th, Essendon 7^th to 11^th-12^th (and Adelaide 1^st to 11^th – 12^th ). But before you start, I don’t rate the ‘excuse meter’ that is  injuries.  Essendon added Smith, Saad, Stringer plus improvement of a large numbers of players and the emergence of youngsters in Ridley, Begley, Redman and Francis.  If Adelaide win, this team could finish 12^th (7^th-12^th). They had depth and proved this.

Port added Rockliff, Watts, Motlop and slipped from 5th to 9th. Port need Cats to lose to Gold Coast and then beat Essendon. One isn’t happening and the other is only 50/50. Port has had a great injury run.

Best run with Injuries

Lions, Tigers, Demons, Hawks and Port

Mid run with injury

WCE, North, Sydney, Essendon, Saints and Geelong.

Bad run with injury

GWS

(Griffen, Davis, Shaw, Kelly Scully, Delidio, Greene, Corr, Simpson, De Boer AND traded Smith to Essendon) . Ladder position 6^th.

Collingwood

(Broomhead, Dunn, Elliott, Goldsack, Howe, Moore, Reid, Scharenberg, Treloar and Wells) 3^rd on AFL table.

 

Introduction: The Finals Run

AFL stats masters Champion Data have run the numbers – and they don’t think Demons’ fans should worry too much. They were proven correct and nailed their analysis from last week. Lets look back in retrospect.

Melbourne (12-8, 130.5% after Round 21) is given a 95 per cent chance of making the eight by Champion Data’s simulations of the rest of the season – they’re in fact the fifth-most likely side to make it, according to the numbers.

The Demons face West Coast (15-5, 123.4%) and GWS (13-6-1, 120.4%) in the final two rounds of the season, but won on average 13.5 matches in the simulations – suggesting they will win at least one of those games, with a solid shot of winning both. GWS will be fighting for that top 4 spot and Eagles to ensure top 2. That’s not easy.

Port Adelaide (12-8, 113.9%) is rated as the side most likely to drop out of the top eight, given a 39 per cent chance of making it. The Power are expected to reach 13 wins, suggesting they will defeat either Collingwood (13-7, 118.3%) or Essendon (11-9, 104.8%).

But so are ladder rivals Geelong (11-9, 117.2%), who face Fremantle and Gold Coast in the final fortnight of the home and away season. The Cats’ percentage advantage would likely be enough to see them finish above Port if both sides finish on 13 wins.

The Cats are rated as an 83 per cent chance of making the top eight, just below Sydney (13-7, 109.7%) on 90 per cent and Hawthorn (13-7, 121.2%) on 92 per cent.

The Magpies are rated as a 97 per cent chance to finish in the top eight, while GWS, West Coast and ladder leaders Richmond(16-4, 139.7%) all sit at 100 per cent.

Both Essendon and North Melbourne (11-9, 109.1%) are long shots to play finals footy according to the numbers, given a 1 per cent and 3 per cent chance, respectively.

In retrospect, a great assessment from Champion Data.

 

Last Week

Essendon v Richmond

THIS was another timely and ominous reminder of Richmond’s quality and depth.

Forced to survive a late scare on Friday night, conceding the final four goals of the match, the reigning premiers as good as ended Essendon’s slim finals hopes with a nervous eight-point win. Both sides were missing important players but the Tigers always looked to have the Dons’ measure. Missing captain Trent Cotchin through injury, as well as Dion Prestia, Kane Lambert and David Astbury, the Tigers controlled proceedings for three-and-a-half quarters to win their 20th straight match at the MCG 12.9 (81) to 11.7 (73).

An incredible chase-down tackle from Daniel Rioli, thwarting an Adam Saad counter attack, sealed Richmond victory and virtually guaranteed the club its first minor premiership since 1982. It also left a sorry Essendon outfit licking its wounds and looking at booking its September holidays. An unstoppable Dustin Martin produced a vintage display to inspire Richmond’s victory, combining bursts through the midfield with a floating role across half-forward to finish with 26 disposals, 10 marks, four goals and almost certainly another three Brownlow votes. afl.com.au

The Dons have thrown out serious challenges to Hawthorn (4 points) 4^th and Richmond (8 points) 1^st. Certainly another example of ‘promising frustration’.

 

RICHMOND   4.0   5.6  10.8  12.9 (81)
ESSENDON   2.3   4.4   7.5   11.7 (73)

GOALS
Richmond: Caddy 4, Martin 4, Riewoldt 2, Castagna, Baker
Essendon: Hooker 3, Brown 2, Baguley, Colyer, Smith, Parish, Stringer, Bellchambers

BEST 
Richmond: Martin, Caddy, Rance, Short, Edwards, Ellis
Essendon: Smith, Zaharakis, Saad, Heppell, Bellchambers, McGrath Port Adelaide v

 

Port v Collingwood

COLLINGWOOD has kept its top-four bid alive and left Port Adelaide’s finals hopes hanging by a thread after a rampaging seven-goal final quarter set up an emphatic 51-point victory at the MCG on Saturday. The Magpies led by just six points in the dying minutes of the third quarter after the teams had waged the type of hard-fought contest you’d expect of clubs looking to position themselves for successful September campaigns. However, the game turned decisively when Steven Motlop conceded an undisciplined 50m penalty late in the third term.

It sparked a run of eight unanswered Collingwood goals and, with the Power not adding another major until the dying seconds of the game, the Magpies cruised to a 17.13 (115) to 10.4 (64) victory that broke a four-game losing streak against Port.

COLLINGWOOD          4.2       9.7       10.11   17.13 (115)
PORT ADELAIDE         4.1       7.2       9.4       10.4 (64)

GOALS
Collingwood: Stephenson 2, Phillips 2, Mihocek 2, De Goey 2, Sier, Varcoe, Adams, Oxley, Sidebottom, Cox, Grundy, Mayne, Thomas
Port Adelaide: Ryder 3, Boak 2, Westhoff, Watts, Polec, R.Gray, S.Gray

BEST 
Collingwood: Grundy, Adams, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Mayne, Maynard
Port Adelaide: Motlop, Boak, Westhoff, Wines, Polec, R.Gray

 

Port

LAST FIVE TIMES
R4, 2018, Essendon 16.10 (106) d Port Adelaide 12.12 (84) at Etihad Stadium
R12, 2017, Essendon 19.17 (131) d Port Adelaide 8.13 (61) at Etihad Stadium
R3, 2016, Port Adelaide 17.10 (112) d Essendon 7.9 (51) at Adelaide Oval
R17, 2015, Port Adelaide 20.9 (129) d Essendon 17.14 (116) at Etihad Stadium
R16, 2014, Essendon 8.14 (62) d Port Adelaide 7.18 (60) at Adelaide Oval

 

Port Adelaide has been unplugged in South Australia, losing four out of the past five games. It would be demoralising for the local club. They have scoring and game style issues. They lack cohesion and can’t connect chains from defence through the mid, or mid area to forwards.  They are seriously susceptible to turnovers.   Port were #2 in 2017 in attack averaging 98 points per game. They are now # 13 in 2018. Last 6 weeks averaged just 68 points per game.  They have not scored 100 points since Round 13.   In 2017 were #1 for forward half scores. 2018 #13. They are unable to keep the ball in their front half and if Essendon get their running game going Port will find them hard to stop. They also coughed up two goals in last 45 seconds at home to lose to Eagles in Round 21.

Port have lost the Contested Possession count for 4 out last 5 weeks.                                         Have lost bookends for the season in Dixon and Clurey. Ryder played injured last week v Pies and kicked 3 goals, but Grundy had 25 disposals and a goal to be close to BOG.              Greenwood went to Wingard and shut him down so the Pies obviously targeted the classy finisher. Mature recruits in Watts and Rockliff have had indifferent seasons with Motlop probably the only tick.  People are questioning their passion to compete. They have fallen away remarkably. Conceded 7.2 to 1.1 in the last quarter v Collingwood with game & season on the line.  They also gave up 39 to 64 Inside 50’s and 30 shots against (10.4 to 17.13) and could not  contain the mobility of the Collingwood forward line. Cox (8 marks) and mobile types DeGoey, Mihochek, Stephenson and Thomas kicked 8.7 between all of them. A switched on and focused Essendon are a real show to win this.

Been a colossus, but injury takes its toll. Will Port rest the injured Ryder?

Injury List

The Dons have had an awkward but not insurmountable injury list. Daniher, Ambrose, Fantasia, Redman, Begley, Gleeson and McKernan are a good mix of players and Essendon’s depth has been tested. They have come through particularly well to have more than competitive performances against premiership aspirants in the Hawks and Tigers.

Port have had one of the best rated run with injuries, making their fall from grace even more than alarming.   Dixon, Clurey (bookends), Broadbent and Hartlett are in Port’s best 18. Midweek it was announced that Tom Rockliff would miss with surgery.

Selection

Straight swap Leuenberger for Bellchambers. Option to look at Draper not taken, but pick your best team. Personally happy to be playing Laverde. Got injured and didn’t get the long run at it like Langford. That would have been good.

The Power lose Rockliff but have an excellent replacement in Sam Powell-Pepper. They also turned to speed with Jake Neade.

 

From the Stats Sheet

Port will hold a pretty clear advantage at clearances and stoppages and this will be assisted by the fact that Tom Bellchambers will not play. The Dons have been much improved in Centre Clearances.  Then again Port are hoping for miracles and are pushing Paddy Ryder through also. Maybe they put him away for the year. Port also have a significant advantage over Essendon in Points Against.

Both sides are very high marks Inside 50 but Dixon is a big loss.

‘Rounds in the Eight’ show extraordinary disparity. Essendon once and Port 19 times. Not sure what’s the most disappointing? Port should win the inside contest/Essendon the outside run.

 

 

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	PORT
Disposals	8th	10TH
Marks	3rd	7th
Tackles	7th	1st
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	7th
Goals	8th	13th
Contested Possessions	11th	7th
Uncontested Poss.	5th	14TH
Disposal Effectiveness	7th	17th
Marks Inside 50	3rd	9th
Clearances	10th	2nd
Centre Clearances	5th	9th
Stoppages	11th	2nd
Handballs	8th	15th
Points Against	1749	1543
Inside 50’s	6th	8th
Forward 50 Chains	9th	8th
% Rounds in the Eight	104 1/22	109.6 19/22

 

Game x Game Summaries

It makes hard reading to see where the Dons were so poor against the #1 side and yet failed by 8 points. Only 45 Inside 50-5 Tackles inside 50m-42% efficiency going forward-Scores For poor-Scores Against were excellent. The Dons did really good work in the Centre Clearances and general Stoppages around the ground. Keeping Richmond to 12.9.81 was excellent. Chance squandered.

STATISTIC	v. HAWKS	COMMENT	TIGERS	COMMENT
STOPPAGES	23-21	Good	18-28	Excellent
CENT CLEARANCES	16-18	Average	12-12	Good
INSIDE 50	49	Average	45	Poor
INSIDE 50 AGAINST	59	Poor	58	Average
SCORE AGAINST	16.11.107	Poor	12.9.81	Excellent
MARKS INSIDE 50	9	Average	5	Poor
TACKLES	60-51	Average	56-62	Poor
CONTESTED POSS.	131-160	Average	147-135	Very good
UNCONSTESTED	249-240	Good	234-239	Good
MARKS AGAINST FORW 50	9-11	Very Good	17	Poor
UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST	97	Poor	79	Good
TACKLES FORW 50	6	Poor	5	Poor
KICK/HB RATIO	224-160	Very Good	210-161	Very Good
EFFICENCY INSIDE 50	51%	Good	42%	Average
MARKS TOTAL	105-108	Good	97-89	Very Good
SCORE FOR	16.7.103	Very good	11.7	Poor
TURNOVERS			76-68	Average

                       

The match up with TB is not going to happen. Ryder limping to the line.

The Correlation

Following the Carlton game I have monitored the ‘goals against’. Not sure what transpired internally but it’s been a great focus on my favourite term for the year: Defensive Integrity. North 16, Richmond 17 and Hawks 16 have kicked what I consider a winnable score against the Dons. The Dons were back on target against the Tigers and it was a great effort to hold them to 12 goals in what should have been a losing score. 10/11 times in the flowing list the Dons have been great defensively. The Hawks quality of ball movement proved the difference ( 16 goals)

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6
• 11
• 10 (Sydney)
• 16 ( Hawks)
• 11 (Saints)
• 12(Tigers)

The Dons, now, have a very indentifiable trademark from which they can build into next preseason.

 

 SUMMARY

LAST FIVE TIMES
R4, 2018, Essendon 16.10 (106) d Port Adelaide 12.12 (84) at Etihad Stadium
R12, 2017, Essendon 19.17 (131) d Port Adelaide 8.13 (61) at Etihad Stadium
R3, 2016, Port Adelaide 17.10 (112) d Essendon 7.9 (51) at Adelaide Oval
R17, 2015, Port Adelaide 20.9 (129) d Essendon 17.14 (116) at Etihad Stadium
R16, 2014, Essendon 8.14 (62) d Port Adelaide 7.18 (60) at Adelaide Oval

 

Port were 4^th in Round 19 and have been in the 8 for 19 of 22 Rounds.  They are also the first team (since the early 1960’s)  to be 11- 4 and miss the finals. The Dons have been in the 8 once and that was Round 1. The highest position they got was 8^th and the lowest 15^th. That’s the bottom line over the course of the season. What does that tell you? The inconsistency is remarkable, given the Dons were the second best performed team for a 10 week period Round 9-19.

The Power must beat the Bombers and hope the Suns can pull off a stunning upset of the Cats on Saturday to sneak into eighth. Not going to happen is it? Port have lost five of their past six games. It’s been the reverse for the Bombers. After winning just two of their first eight, they turned it on in the second half of the season, but gave themselves too much to do. The theory on catch -up proves right again. Relying on others is a waste of breath and time. Essendon couldn’t look after their own back yard and have paid a massive penalty. The Power must find a way to fix their scoring woes without key forward Charlie Dixon if they’re a chance to keep their slim finals hopes alive. . Recent history goes the way of the Bombers, who have won seven of their past nine games against the Power. It’s one win apiece in Adelaide Oval games between the Power and the Bombers. The Power have won seven of their 11 Adelaide Oval games this year, but the Bombers have a great interstate record this season, with four wins from five trips.

Tip

How these two talented lists aren’t featuring in September has got me confused, demented, bewildered, muddled, addled, befuddled, disoriented, disorientated, unbalanced, unhinged and all at sea. I’m not alone. Personal pride, though, can be a strong motivator in Round 23.  If Port win, they will move back into 8th position, pushing the Cats to 9th. If Geelong don’t beat Gold Coast at home on Saturday, it will be the story of the season.

Win or lose, it will be a disappointed Essendon playing group that trudges off Adelaide Oval. Whoever ‘turns up to play’ wins.

Port with Wingard, Ryder, Boak, Polec, Westhoff  Ebert, Motlop, Wines, (Rockliff (inj))   and Robbie Gray may just feel like playing with the pressure off. Surely too much talent.

The recurring theme of 2018: Talent isn’t everything!!

Port by 17 points

Over and Out from me. 

Robert Shaw  24/8/2018

 

Hey….no more season ending photos like this next year and beyond… eh? 

 

Brendon Goddard Revisited January 2016

Goddard captaincy announcement. January 22nd 2016 (taken from essendonfc.com.au)

Essendon Football Club will be captained by Brendon Goddard for the 2016 season. Goddard’s promotion to the captaincy was ratified by the Board and endorsed by the playing group. The 30 year-old said he was honoured to take on the role under difficult circumstances.

“While we’re still coming to terms with the events of this week, we must get on and prepare for the season ahead,” Goddard said. It’s an honour to Captain the Essendon Football Club, although you’d prefer it to be under better circumstances. There’s no doubt we’re going to face some tough challenges as a Club this season, but we have confidence we have a list that is ready to take these challenges head on, and won’t be taking a backward step.This group has a real opportunity to create its own history. We’re here because we love footy. We’re here to get better and we’re here to be competitive.”

 

Editors note: An article I wrote 32 months ago for essendonfc.com.au

It’s been a very long journey for newly appointed captain Brendon Goddard. From a young Caulfield Grammar student in 2002 to the captain of an AFL club undergoing enormous scrutiny, regeneration and finally restabilising, up until now, a club lacking in identity. A club 12 years from its last finals win. He has played a very big role in being the face of Essendon. Who would have thought that after playing magnificently in a number of St. Kilda finals series? He almost single handedly won the Saints a premiership as a hard working talented midfielder, pushing forward at every opportunity. Who can forget the mark in the goal square as the Saints stormed home? He has been a very talented resilient footballer and one that has played many positions ranging from half back to wing, centre and even out of full forward. He had outstanding years in 2009-2010 winning All Australian selection

Having been sold a vision and with Essendon on the verge of pushing up the ladder as a contender On 1 October 2012, Goddard signed with Essendon. What he was about to experience was unprecedented and Goddard found himself playing spokesperson, mediator, and statesman and media front man. Essendon just wanted him to play, and play well.

And now a captain. Often in leadership groups, but now stepping into the role at Essendon reserved for names such as Reynolds, Fraser, Clarke and Daniher. Unfortunately, as a captain I doubt he will experience the exalted status of former Essendon premiership captains. But his role is different and he may go down as one of the most important captains in Essendon history. Leading the Essendon group out of this mist and setting up a fabric that will stand the test of time. Quite reasonably, when assessing Goddard’s role and success as a captain, there will always be qualifier, and that is that he has the toughest job in AFL.

Great captains have always had defining features. Goddard cannot impose himself physically on a game like Carey or Voss. Is he not as physically imposing as Hodge nor can he lead from the front of the ground like Riewoldt or Pavlich. Probably not, mainly because he is not in that phase of his career. Brendon’s best and most influential playing days are behind him. However, he can be one of the great pillars of team leadership, together with John Worsfold, in season 2016 and maybe beyond. This is his team, his club, with his imprint. Goddard has had his detractors. Publicly criticised by Paul Chapman and internal conflict with Jake Carlisle are just sideshows. He has also been self-critical, meaning analytical, or his own demeanour. He is passionate, intense and wants to win. Brendon Goddard cares!   However, in order to be a great on field stabiliser for the likes of Laverde, Merrett, Langford and Parish etc. he will need to eradicate the visual gesturing and frustrated body language. At stages this year a lopsided scoreboard and errors from team mates will test his composure.

Goddard can still be direct, still be emphatic, still provide strong honest feedback both on and off the field and still be demanding for uncompromising standards. How he communicates those important characteristics will make or break Goddard the captain. Essendon’s leadership group comprises youngsters in Merrett and Daniher, the experienced Gwilt and the emerging Zaharakis and Baguley. However, I know that the likes of Crowley and Kelly will provide critical support and more so the ability, experience and maturity to tap Goddard on the shoulder as a means of support and feedback. I know where Essendon FC are coming from but I would have left Daniher and Merrett out of it as they are ending critical development phases in their career.  The options were to put Crowley and Kelly in.

Finally, for Goddard, the ultimate challenge. I doubt very much that the likes of Clarkson, Lyon, Longmire and the Scott twins are going to cut him any slack. As captain and one of Essendon’s key players Goddard will be targeted verbally, physically and more interestingly tactically. As the key playmaker, ‘quarterback’ on the field, clubs are going to go after Brendon in an attempt to destabilise his on field positioning and critical ball distribution. Brendon, more than any, understands that it goes with the territory.

As captain he knows he will need to fulfil many roles. On the filed the opposition will be hell bent on stopping him controlling play. Goddard does have to play well. Off field, media, functions and sponsors are all part of it.  He knows its coming and as an outstanding professional he won’t be fazed.

As much as he has done in football this poses one of his greatest challenges. He can, in fact, end up a great Essendon captain.

Robert Shaw

 

Note: On 21/08/2018 it was announced that Goddard would not be offered a new contract with Essendon

 

Richmond v Essendon Round 22 Friday 17th August 7.50 MCG

Stunning display against the Saints last week, a BOG effort.

Hope springs eternal…but reality bites.

People will keep on hoping, no matter what the odds. It is human nature always to find fresh cause for optimism.

Geelong-Melbourne-Port Adelaide-Essendon. More ‘Spin’ than a Shane Warne leg break?

The Cats put together the ultimate midfield. Called it the ‘holy’ trinity. The Cats are 9^th, one game and only two clubs in the eight with a worse percentage. Chris Scott explains it that he ‘has Richmond and Hawthorn’s measure’ when it comes to playing them in the finals. If he pulls this off, then he is a genius. Amazing stat about Melbourne. They are 0-7 against teams that are in the eight with a percentage of 74.8. They are 12-1 against the bottom nine with a percentage of 174.8. It’s appropriate I’m on a school camp to Falls Creek. Didn’t have to drive this far to find downhill skiers.

Demons have had the third best run with injuries to ‘best 22’. Essendon on the other hand have reached Round 22 and been in the eight ONCE. Can you believe this team could finish as low 12^th on the ladder, but those stats don’t lie? Both teams were much hyped in preseason. They are what they are for a reason.  AND rightly so.  Still a chance of course, but gee! This was to be the Demons year and no one saw this Essendon year coming. Could both clubs have one last run at the premiership? It’s not a Melbourne Cup field. The Dons have injuries and sore spots and face the Tigers who will push hard before resting at the Bye. Port are another club blessed with ‘on paper talent’. Wines, Boak, Wingard and Gray, yet again a team remarkably inconsistent and seemingly lacking real steel, especially closing out tight ones. The coaches box- like the team- seems to run on adrenaline. Crows have ranked very badly with injury but still, 2nd to 12th is one mighty fall.

At the start of the year I had Melbourne 4^th, Crows 3rd, Geelong 5^th, Essendon 6th and Port 7th .I’m going real well! (Plus Tigers GWS and Swans)

Best run with Injuries

Lions, Tigers, Demons, Hawks and Port

Mid Run with injury

WCE, North, Sydney, Essendon, Saints and Geelong.

Bad Run with injury

GWS, Fremantle, GC, Blues, Crows, Dogs and Pies.

So full marks to Collingwood and GWS.

Note: The default position with clubs complaining about injuries is Collingwood. They are 13-7 and 5^th on the ladder. Two points off 3^rd. They play Port and Fremantle and could claim a top 4 position. Relative to clubs of equal standing like Port, Geelong, Essendon and Crows, this is outstanding

Not tonight, Cotch.

Introduction: The Finals Run

AFL stats’ masters Champion Data have run the numbers – and they don’t think Demons fans should worry too much. Gee?! They need to check their numbers.

Melbourne (12-8, 130.5% after Round 21) is given a 95 per cent chance of making the eight by Champion Data’s simulations of the rest of the season – they’re in fact the fifth-most likely side to make it, according to the numbers. Not sure that’s too accurate.

The Demons face West Coast (15-5, 123.4%) and GWS (13-6-1, 120.4%) in the final two rounds of the season, but won on average 13.5 matches in the simulations – suggesting they will win at least one of those games, with a solid shot of winning both. GWS will be fighting for that top 4 spot and Eagles to ensure top 2. That’s not easy.

Port Adelaide (12-8, 113.9%) is rated as the side most likely to drop out of the top eight, given a 39 per cent chance of making it. The Power are expected to reach 13 wins, suggesting they will defeat either Collingwood (13-7, 118.3%) or Essendon (11-9, 104.8%).

But so are ladder rivals Geelong (11-9, 117.2%), who face Fremantle and Gold Coast in the final fortnight of the home and away season. The Cats’ percentage advantage would likely be enough to see them finish above Port if both sides finish on 13 wins.

The Cats are rated as an 83 per cent chance of making the top eight, just below Sydney (13-7, 109.7%) on 90 per cent and Hawthorn (13-7, 121.2%) on 92 per cent.

The Magpies are rated as a 97 per cent chance to finish in the top eight, while GWS, West Coast and ladder leaders Richmond(16-4, 139.7%) all sit at 100 per cent.

Both Essendon and North Melbourne (11-9, 109.1%) are long shots to play finals footy according to the numbers, given a 1 per cent and 3 per cent chance, respectively.

Ref: Champion Data

Draw Rankings

Melbourne FC: WCE-GWS 9/10

Sydney FC: GWS-Hawks 8.5/10

Geelong FC: Fremantle-Gold Coast 2.5/10

North FC: Adelaide-Saints 6/10

Crows FC: North-Carlton 5/10

Port: Collingwood-Essendon 8.5/10

Collingwood FC: Port- Fremantle 4/10

Hawthorn FC: Saints-Sydney 5.5/10

Essendon: Tigers-Port 8.5/10

Last Week

Essendon v Saints

St Kilda started competitively, but a disappointing second half saw it fall away in a performance that will heap more pressure on coach Alan Richardson as Essendon won 18.14 (122) to 11.13 (79).

The Bombers boosted their percentage by 2.5 points but almost certainly need to win their remaining matches to have any chance in September calculations. In a fiery game which saw multiple scuffles break out, Essendon had Captain Dyson Heppell and silky left-footer Zach Merrett in form, while Devon Smith’s effort and intensity were obvious. Bombers’ coach John Worsfold was impressed the way his team reacted to being down on numbers. “The players were wonderful, the way they understood what they had to do and how we wanted the game to be played as we slowly lost players,” Worsfold said.

Essendon has a huge clash on Friday night as it clings on to its faint finals hopes, taking on reigning premiers Richmond at the MCG, where the Tigers have won 19 straight games. Meanwhile, St Kilda will be at Etihad Stadium the following night as it aims to turn around its form and disrupt Hawthorn’s finals plans. afl.com.au

ESSENDON  5.3   10.8   14.13   18.14 (122)
ST KILDA     4.4    6.8     7.10   11.13 (79)

GOALS
Essendon: McDonald-Tipungwuti 5, Fantasia 2, Stringer 2, Myers 2, Langford 2, Heppell, Francis, Hooker, McKenna, Smith
St Kilda: Billings 2, Gresham 2, Lonie 2, Freeman, Newnes, Long, Marshall, Paton

BEST 
Essendon: McDonald-Tipungwuti, Merrett, McGrath, McKenna, Myers, Heppell
St Kilda: Ross, Steele, Armitage, Billings

INJURIES 
Essendon: Goddard (right knee), Saad (concussion), Hooker (right knee), Fantasia (left hamstring), Langford (left shoulder)

 

Richmond v Gold Coast

Jack Riewoldt has lit up Metricon Stadium, putting on a 10-goal masterclass in Richmond’s 74-point win over Gold Coast on Saturday. Not only did Riewoldt kick the biggest bag of the AFL season, he leapfrogged four other players to take the lead in the Coleman Medal with 58 goals, four clear of Kangaroo Ben Brown.

The 19.11 (125) to 7.9 (51) win secures the Tigers a top-two spot regardless of what happens in the final fortnight. t also means the premier will not have to leave the MCG again if they win their first final.On a day in which the Tigers looked to be going through the motions, Riewoldt put on a show at Metricon in front of 18,102 fans – many of them wearing yellow and black. His stat line was like something from a video game; 26 disposals, 14 marks, 12 of them inside 50 and 10.6.

Jack likely to be minded by Hurley again. No ten goal game here!

LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R11, 2018, Richmond 17.12 (114) d Essendon 6.7 (43) at the MCG
R10, 2017, Richmond 11.15 (81) d Essendon 10.6 (66) at the MCG
R17, 2016, Richmond 16.6 (102) d Essendon 11.17 (83) at the MCG
R10, 2016, Richmond 16.9 (105) d Essendon 10.7 (67) at the MCG
R22, 2015, Richmond 10.14 (74) d Essendon 7.5 (47) at the MCG

The Tigers

Jack Riewoldt put on a clinic last week. He kicked 10.6 and had 7 shots in 1st quarter alone. He had 26 disposals for over 600m gained. He played both high and deep forward 50. Interestingly, Hardwick already broadcast that focus on him was too much as the Tigers have relied on an even contribution. So this week, look for greater spread of goals from Caddy, Castagna, Higgins, Edwards and Rioli. The old question bobs up about the Essendon philosophy. Look, I know I harp on it, but with sound reason. At the end of year review I’ll go back over two years and do an exercise as to how many close games Essendon have lost by not cutting out a key opposition player. Do they tag Martin? 28 disposals last time and significantly influential because he breaks free and kicks decisively. Against Collingwood Greenwood kept Martin to 19 possessions but Martin dragged him forward for 3 goals. It is important that Essendon have the right match up when he goes forward, and that the player is aware he will be responsible. It is surprising how often clubs get caught out and Martin gets a poor ‘one out’ match up.

The Tigers had a big corridor focus. Especially minimised handball out of Defensive 50m.

They will look to pressure Bombers in their F50, like they did last time, and put work especially into McKenna, Saad and McGrath. Essendon cannot afford to overuse with handball or sideways kicking as this totally plays into the hands of the elite Tigers pressure game, but they must find away out of the Tiger Press or they will lose.  Essendon must match Contested Possession and pressure stats to be any chance. Tigers 22 marks I/50 last week.  Keep an eye on young Jayden Short as his kicking is elite and he also gained 696 metres off HB. Richmond just keep coming up with these young developing players. Rance factor important when going into F50. Bombers may come up short unfortunately. 71pt loss in Rnd 11 v Tigers.

Debuted against the Tigers and joined the illustrious ‘first kick, first goal’ club. 

50 game milestone against the Tigers tonight.  

What will the Tigers do?

1. They will be flat-out as they want top spot. But won’t risk with injury.
2. Winning form is good form. They won’t relent and present an excellent challenge to Essendon.
3. They can rest during the Bye.
4. If there is a luxury to be had, they may rotate some players through positions to increase fitness/game time.

Injury List

No Ambrose, Begley, Daniher, Gleeson, McKernan or Redman. Saad concussion, Fantasia hamstring, Goddard knee, Hooker knee and Langford shoulder will either miss or limp to the line. Hooker and Goddard didn’t do much at training on Tuesday, with the real test to come later in the week. Saad has pulled up well so far, and how he recovers after Tuesday’s session will be important in determining whether he faces Richmond on Friday night.

The modern-day player is programmed to rest during games through the system of rotations. Another reason that Richmond will win is the taxing nature of playing a game with zero rotations for a considerable time. Essendon did well as today’s player comes off the ground, they rarely stay on and push through that old pain barrier. This could affect the team if all those players have to go hard again. But a very good opportunity to put some fresh legs into the team because against the Tigers there is one certainty-RUN.

Mid Thursday it was announced that captain Cotchin, key back Astbury and the important Dion Prestia won’t be risked . Add to that the impressive Kane Lambert needing  minor surgery on the ankle he injured against Gold Coast. He is expected to be available for the first final, as is Butler, who last week had the same reinforcement procedure Lambert underwent on Monday. The setback means Butler will be up against it to get back this season given he hasn’t played since round 16. Nankervis was “managed” against Gold Coast with the Tigers hesitant to take any chances with their big man after he picked up a corked quad against Geelong, but will play against Essendon. Conca is a chance to be available despite rolling his other ankle in the VFL on weekend. However, a VFL bye this weekend means he’ll likely sit out again. Bolton also had minor surgery last week on his knee with the Tigers aiming to have him up and running to take part in the VFL finals. Daniel Rioli trained last week with a taped right knee but faced the Suns without strapping and should be fine to go. – Jennifer Phelan afl.com.au

Interesting times with the Tigers list management of sore spots and injuries. They have to do this two weeks out ( not next week) because imagine creating serious issues in finals week, for example. Remember the Bulldogs getting everyone to the line at the bye and winning a premiership?

Selection

As expected ( with niggles) Richmond announced early that premiership stars Trent Cotchin (hamstring), Dion Prestia (hamstring), David Astbury (Achilles) and Kane Lambert (ankle) would not play.

Ivan Soldo is also out for Richmond, which welcomes back senior experience with Reece Conca, Toby Nankervis, Sam Lloyd while youngsters Liam Baker and Ryan Garthwaite grab a chance on the eve of the finals

Goddard, Hooker and Saad appear to have got through ok. Matt Dea and Matt Guelfi return for the Dons who will be without injured pair Orazio Fantasia and Ben McNiece.

From the Stats Sheet

Tigers #1 in Tackles in Forward 50m,   #2 in Pressure inside Forward 50m, #2 in Inside 50m and #2 in Marks Inside 50m. Not exotic team structures at Punt Rd.

1. Get the ball in there
2. If we don’t mark it Keep it there until we score.
3. Be the best forward pressure team in the competition.
4. Value defence and Points Against
5. Kick the ball out of defence…DON’T over use.

You ask about Game Plan? There it is.

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	TIGERS
Disposals	6th	13TH
Marks	4th	16th
Tackles	6th	14th
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	1ST
Goals	8th	2ND
Contested Possessions	11th	8th
Uncontested Poss.	5th	14TH
Disposal Effectiveness	6th	12th
Marks Inside 50	3rd	2nd
Clearances	10th	17th
Centre Clearances	5th	3rd
Stoppages	11th	17th
Handballs	8th	12th
Points Against	10th 1668	1st 1406
Inside 50’s	7th	2nd
Forward 50 Chains	9th	2nd
%	104	140

 Game x Game Summaries

Very emphatic from the Dons. Controlled it in all areas except forward pressure (9 Tackles inside 50) wasn’t great. Will have to be elite against the Tigers. No pressure from the Saints resulted in 63% Efficiency Inside 50.

STATISTIC	v. HAWKS	COMMENT	v. SAINTS	COMMENT
STOPPAGES	23-21	Good	17-14	Good
CENT CLEARANCES	16-18	Average	16-14	Good
INSIDE 50	49	Average	60	Very Good
INSIDE 50 AGAINST	59	Poor	46	Excellent
SCORE AGAINST	16.11.107	Poor	11.13.79	Very Good
MARKS INSIDE 50	9	Average	18-14	Very Good
TACKLES	60-51	Average	55-46	Average
CONTESTED POSS.	131-160	Average	133-119	Good
UNCONSTESTED	249-240	Good	260-241	Very Good
MARKS AGAINST FORW 50	9-11	Very Good	14	Average
UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST	97	Poor	79	Good
TACKLES FORW 50	6	Poor	9	Poor
KICK/HB RATIO	224-160	Very Good	235-186	Average
EFFICENCY INSIDE 50	51%	Good	63%-52%	Very Good
MARKS TOTAL	105-108	Good	117	Very Good
SCORE FOR	16.7.103	Very good	18.14.122	Excellent

 The Correlation

Following the Carlton game I have monitored the ‘goals against’. Not sure what transpired internally but it’s been a great focus on my favourite term for the year: Defensive Integrity. Only North 16, Richmond 17 and Hawks 16 have kicked what I consider a winnable score against the Dons.

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6
• 11
• 10 (Sydney)
• 16 ( Hawks)
• 11 (Saints)

In 10 /12 games these are the scores ‘against’ Essendon. Won 9/12 and so impressive in doing so. Held another team to under 50 Inside 50’s (Saints 46)

SUMMARY

The Tigers are getting injuries back and have a health list. The Dons are a bit sore, but while that may be a reason for performance it will not excuse standards. It could be exciting up forward as the Tigers are ranked 2^nd for Inside 50 marks and the Dons 3^rd. Jack Riewoldt won’t replicate his 10 goal game because Hurley ( hopefully) or Hooker will have big games on him. I don’t expect him to be so damaging but that will have no effect on the result. Tigers have a system where Martin, Caddy, Townsend (when available), Rioli and Castagna will all feature. Caddy and Martin out of the goal square, with Riewoldt at CHF has proved to be particularly effective. It’ll be hard for Jack Riewoldt to replicate his goal kicking feats of last week where he bagged 10 goals. Riewoldt will go into the game on 595 goals, meaning he needs a handful to become just the fourth Tiger to reach 600. Hurley stopped Franklin and he’ll stop Jack. No 600 JR.

A quiet word about the game’s #1 ranked Mid/Forward….yep Wingard, Ablett, Mundy, Dangerfield, Parker, Beams, Zaharakis, DeGoey?? Nup 

While all the talk is on Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin and Caddy, it’s been a great season for Shane Edwards. He’s ranked No.1 in the competition in the midfielder/forward category. It’s about time he received his true recognition. He is a fine player.

Theory

If the Tigers are ‘resting’ players and the other players are aware of it, I wonder if that has a flow on  in terms of  ‘lack’ of desperation and urgency. OR…Hardwick can use it to motivate those players that come into the side. They will be hungry to perform on finals’ eve. That ‘should’ be enough to keep Dimma’s team at optimum level.

Interesting times.

Hardwick playing games with player management?

Will it backfire?

Are Dons good enough to take advantage?

Tip

For the Bombers, a finals’ appearance is possible when it comes to crunching the numbers but they need plenty of things to go their way. The loss of Fantasia is a bloody nuisance! A loss to the Tigers will end the dream despite their recent form that has seen them win seven of their last nine games. Captain Dyson Heppell will line up for his 150th (great effort, Skipper) AFL game in a game the Bombers HAVE. TO. WIN. . But, things will be tough for the Bombers in attack. The miserly Tigers are the highest ranked defensive side with an average of only 70 conceded per game, while the Bombers have given up an average of 83.

Playing arguably his best football, ‘Left Leg’ can do some damage.

The Dons looked demoralised after the Hawks loss and rightly so. Didn’t play at all well and lost by 4 points. Terrific bounce back game against a poor Saints team (4-15-1) but have to factor in no interchange and early injuries for a considerable time. Dons did what was expected. Two taxing games though.

So now its 1^st v 11^th. There is hope if the Dons can put 2/2 together but the Tigers at the MCG going for 18^th straight win on the ground is an immense challenge. Essendon have injuries and are sore and have come of an emotional game against Hawks and win, without rotations, against the disappointing Saints.  The Tiger are not going to ease up, but are also knocked about.  There is a Bye in two weeks.

For Essendon the cumulative effect of the last two weeks, plus ‘have to win’ to stay in the hunt will tell. The Tigers are fit, fresh and want to earn top spot. For some reason, Essendon has a poor record at the MCG. They have to get away from Etihad as they are becoming somewhat a specialist (comfortable and, more importantly, game system related) at the smaller quicker venue. The MCG take a lot more mechanical and structural organisation.  The Tigers have dominated this venue. However IF there is no Cotchin, plus Prestia and Lambert (both confirmed), and now a key partner to Rance in Astbury  it  really opens the door for Essendon. If those four  were playing I predicted a 5+ goal win for the Tigers. Without them there is no excuse for the Dons, but it’s still the Tigers by less than two goals.  The Dons must get this MCG ground right. In days gone by, they played brilliantly here.

Catch up….catches up.

Robert Shaw

17/8/2018

 

 

 

 

 

Essendon v St. Kilda Round 21 Friday August 10th 7.50 Etihad Stadium

                                                   

Degree of difficulty in making the eight.

Incredibly, there are nine teams from 4^th (Melbourne) to 12^th (Crows) that can either MISS or MAKE the eight. The Demons sit beautifully inside the top four. THEN you look at their draw. I’ve had a quick go at ranking the draws of each of the clubs in the run home.

Melbourne FC: Sydney-WCE-GWS 9/10

Sydney FC: Melbourne-GWS-Hawks 8.5/10

Geelong FC: Hawthorn-Fremantle-Gold Coast 3/10

North FC: Bulldogs-Adelaide-Saints 4.5/10

Crows FC: GWS-North-Carlton 6/10

Port: WCE-Collingwood-Essendon 8/10

Collingwood FC: Brisbane- Port- Fremantle 3.5/10

Hawthorn FC: Geelong-Saints-Sydney 7/10

Essendon: Saints-Tigers-Port 7/10

Saints v Dons

Legitimate optimism and expectations followed both these teams through pre-season. It was once neck and neck between Saints and the Demons as to who was the best young challenger coming through. Reasonable expectations for the Dons coming off 7^th spot last year with realistic expectations of winning a final and progressing into the 2^nd or 3^rd week of September. Combined, North, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast have gone past these two sides on the ladder. I stress in the short term based on this year’s form and consistency. Of course there are variables which have an impact, including injuries (but look at Collingwood’s), the fixture etc. Interesting that the Dons have a much better record interstate but their MCG form is poor and has proven costly. The Saints are 4-14-1 while the Dons will most likely finish 11-11 or 12-10 and with three games to go are two games and 7% behind the closest team in the eight, in the Swans.

So unfortunately it is 11^th v 15^th. The Dons can live in hope but, like I said, it’s a tough gig playing catch up because one slip up and it’s all over. The Saints have made loud noises about supporting Alan Richardson with greater expertise. They have already let go three coaches. They seem determined to embrace change on and off the field.

                                           

LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R17, 2017, Essendon 17.16 (118) d St Kilda 7.15 (57) at Etihad Stadium
R16, 2016, St Kilda 17.7 (109) d Essendon 14.14 (98) at Etihad Stadium
R9, 2016, St Kilda 16.13 (109) d Essendon 9.9 (63) at Etihad Stadium
R14, 2015, St Kilda 25.12 (162) d Essendon 8.4 (52) at Etihad Stadium
R5, 2015, Essendon 11.16 (82) d St Kilda 11.14 (80) at Etihad Stadium

SUMMARY
Essendon’s loss to Hawthorn last week has all but ended its finals’ hopes. The Bombers played well against the Hawks in patches but couldn’t quite catch them despite a final-quarter run of goals. They now need to win their final three games – starting with St Kilda on Friday night at Etihad Stadium – and hope other teams contending for the top eight drop some games if they are to sneak into the finals. John Worsfold’s side will rue its start to the season, which looks set to cost it a September berth, but will be expected to comfortably beat the Saints. The Saints got off to a hot start last week against the Western Bulldogs and led by 28 points in the second quarter before falling away to a 35-point loss. Seb Ross was excellent with 40 disposals and three goals, while Jack Billings kicked 1.3 from 27 disposals to get back to some of his better form. afl.com.au

Essendon dominated all over the ground when the sides last played, registering more disposals (442 to 376), marks (138 to 90), scoring shots (33 to 22) and inside-50s (61 to 44). David Zaharakis starred with 32 touches and two goals. Despite last week’s result, the Bombers have been one of the in-form teams in recent months winning eight of 11 games since round nine. That’s the equal best of any side in the competition. Callum Twomey afl.com.au

3^rd Quarters?

Have to move the car? Grab a beer? ‘take a leak’?  (apologies) 3 Pies with Sauce? Do it now!! This could get ugly.

Neither team has enjoyed the third quarter this season. The Saints are the worst team in the AFL for third terms, being 164 points in arrears across the year for the quarter, while Essendon is ranked the fifth-worst club (conceding 139 points more than they have scored in the period). The teams have played 23 times at Etihad Stadium and Essendon has been the better side, winning 13 games to 10. The Bombers are 5-2 at Etihad Stadium this season, with the Saints winning two of their 10 games at the venue (plus a draw).

Reviews Round 20

Essendon v Hawthorn

Alastair Clarkson’s Hawks suddenly sit comfortably inside the top eight, with the 16.11 (107) to 16.7 (103) triumph in front of 68,857 baying fans placing them in the race for the top four.

“We worked our way back from tough positions on at least two, possibly three occasions throughout the course of the game, which is fantastic for the resilience of this group,”Clarkson said.

“It’s particularly pleasing that we’ve got some leaders who can correct the manner in which the game’s being played. We’ve also got some young players who understand that just because you’re down by two or three goals, the game’s not shot for you.”

The Bombers now must win all of their final three matches and rely on other results if they expect to be part of the September action. It was their sixth defeat in seven starts at the home of Australian football in 2018, whereas Hawthorn has improved to 6-2.

There will also be further discussion about Tom Mitchell’s grasp on the Brownlow Medal, with the gluttonous ball-winner racking up 29 of his 43 touches in a magnificent opening half. Mitchell rounded out his afternoon with 13 clearances and seven inside 50s, opposed predominantly by injury-

The Bombers’ brave bid to rescue a season that looked as good as over at 2-6 through eight rounds is back on life support. A disappointed John Worsfold rued his side’s inability to match Hawthorn in the clinches, with the Hawks dominating contested ball (160-131).

“What we learned from today is we got beaten in the contest, so we need to get better at that. (Improving in that area) will be our focus,”

Zach Merrett (42, nine clearances, five inside 50s) gave his all and went almost possession for possession with Mitchell from the get-go. Cale Hooker (21, 13 marks), like Stratton on the other side, played the role of goalkeeper for Essendon and repeatedly cut off Hawthorn attacks with his aerial prowess.

HAWTHORN       3.1       9.3       13.5     16.11 (107)
ESSENDON         3.3       7.4       12.5     16.7 (103)

GOALS
Hawthorn: Gunston 5, Breust 3, Smith 2, Henderson 2, Roughead, Whitecross, Ceglar, Worpel
Essendon: Baguley 3, Stringer 3, McKenna 2, Hooker 2, Bellchambers, Fantasia, Brown, McDonald-Tipungwuti, McGrath, Colyer

BEST
Hawthorn: Gunston, Mitchell, Stratton, O’Meara, Henderson, Burton
Essendon: Z.Merrett, Hooker, Smith, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Stringer, Fantasia

 

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

A STUNNING four-goal third quarter from Marcus Bontempelli has led the Western Bulldogs to a comfortable 35-point win over St Kilda on Saturday night at Etihad Stadium. The Bulldogs were goalless in the opening term and trailed by 28 points early in the second quarter, but piled on 14 goals to three after the first break to set up a 15.13 (103) to 9.14 (68) win. While neither side will feature in September, it was a well-earned win for Bulldog supporters who have endured a tough season, singing their song for just the second time in the past 11 matches.

Bontempelli- splitting his time between the centre square and the forward line- was one of the Bulldogs’ best after half-time, finishing with 21 disposals and the four goals. Others to star were the tireless Jack Macrae (36 disposals ) and Josh Dunkley (34), while Jason Johannisen’s run-and-carry off halfback was extremely influential in the third term, amassing 42 touches and five inside-50s.

For the Saints, Seb Ross was dominant in the first half, floating across the ground at will and gathering 21 disposals to half-time. He finished with 40 touches and three goals, including nine marks.

ST KILDA                     4.2   7.4    7.9    9.14 (68)
WESTERN BULLDOGS  0.5   6.6  14.12  15.13 (103)

GOALS
St Kilda: Ross 3, Lonie 2, Newnes 2, Membrey, Geary
Western Bulldogs: Bontempelli 4, Schache 3, Greene, Jong, Macrae, Hunter, Dickson, Lipinski, Wallis, Crozier

BEST 
St Kilda: Ross, Gresham, Webster, Lonie, Billings
Western Bulldogs: Bontempelli, Johannisen, Dunkley, Hunter, Morris, Daniel

Injury List

No Ambrose, Begley, Daniher, Gleeson, McKernan or Redman, while the Saints have lost forwards Josh Bruce and Paddy McCartin. The reliable Dylan Roberton is really missed across HBF, but they should regain the recently signed Jimmy Webster. Forward Josh Battle is out and a hamstring tendon issue has ruled Hickey out for the year, leaving the club short on ruckmen, considering Longer won’t play again in 2018 after ankle surgery.

Matt Dea (concussion) will be available and skipper Heppell will battle through groin soreness. Maybe drop off his responsible roles a bit and push him through wings and forward. He has had a huge workload this year and may be hitting a physical (soreness/injury) wall.

Heppell is battling soreness but should be passed fit to face the Saints on Friday night, while Stringer is also expected to play despite suffering a lower leg injury in the second half of last week’s loss to the Hawks. Guelfi is battling a “severe” bout of illness that will keep him out of this week. – Callum Twomey

Selection

I thought he showed great signs and maturity  so I was hoping young Ridley got a look in before seasons’ end and that Clarke was given a few more games. But its ‘No Change’ to the Dons with Clarke, Dea, Leuenberger and Laverde on the emergency list. Shows how close I am to getting Ridley in.

The Saints, on the other hand, have made five changes whicjh include three ommissions. Young Lewis Pierce will have to shoulder the ruck duties. Among those out are strong midfielder Luke Dunstand and highly rated youngster, Hunter Clark.

 

From the Stats Sheet

Plenty to suggest that the Saints game plan is based on high possessions and a high temp defence to attack transition. In the area of the CONTEST and the ability to defend they are one of the poorest in the team. This has to be addressed by the Saints as they go about restructuring their coaching panel.

They should actually take a leaf out of Essendon’s book. They are far too offensive and a % or 75.1 is abysmal. It shows a real lack of attack to defence organisation and transition. The Saints will need great expertise in this area in 2019. They have the second highest scores against in the competition and need to re-evaluate.

Despite high possessions (3rd) the Saints are 12^th for Inside 50m. Sadly for the Saints they are poor in any area of physicality. Tackles-Contested Ball-Clearances. Very positive in the uncontested area of Uncontested Possessions-Disposals-Handballs and Disposal Effectiveness. While the Dons have made serious progress in the Clearance area, the Saints are 18th, 13^th and 17^th in these KPI. Stats wise the Dons have made excellent adjustments are far more consistent across the board.

 

 

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	SAINTS
Disposals	8th	3rd
Marks	5th	6th
Tackles	5th	15th
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	13th
Goals	9th	15th
Contested Possessions	11th	16th
Uncontested Poss.	5th	1st
Disposal Effectiveness	6th	4th
Marks Inside 50	3rd	14th
Clearances	9th	18th
Centre Clearances	6th	13th
Stoppages	10th	17th
Handballs	9th	2nd
Points Against	11th 1589	2nd 1806
Inside 50’s	7th	12th
Forward 50 Chains	10th	15th
%	102.3	75.1

 

 Game x Game Summaries

Hawks had 100+ marks and subsequently don’t lose. Dons conceded nearly 60 inside 50m after conceding 39 last week. They also went from 20 Forward 50m Tackles against Swans to 6! Essendon conceded 16.11.107 and the first time they have conceded 100+ points for some weeks. The Clearance work was very tight. Clearly Essenon down on standards and paid a price.

The Dons were not at their best defensively against a polished Hawk side. Essendon lose by four points. The stats show that it should’ve been 5-6 goal comfortable win by Hawks, who in fairness looked the better side as Essendon dropped the ball. A margin of four points would clearly annoy John Worsfold.

STATISTIC	v. SYDNEY	COMMENT	v. HAWKS	COMMENT
STOPPAGES	19-24	Average	23-21	Good
CENT CLEARANCES	16-10	Good	16-18	Good
INSIDE 50	72	Excellent	49	Average
INSIDE 50 AGAINST	39	Excellent	59	Poor
SCORE AGAINST	10.6.66	Excellent	16.11.107	Poor
MARKS INSIDE 50	12-8	Average	9	Average
TACKLES	65-47	Good	60-51	Average
CONTESTED POSS.	156-141	Very Good	131-160	Average
UNCONSTESTED P	225-185	Good	249-240	Good
MARKS AGAINST FORW 50	8	Very Good	9-11	Very Good
UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST	80	Good	93-97	Very good
TACKLES FORW 50	20	Excellent	6	Poor
KICK/HB RATIO	222-156	Very Good	224-160	Very Good
EFFICENCY INSIDE 50	42%	Poor	51%	Good
MARKS TOTAL	90-95	Average	105-108	Good
SCORE FOR	15.19	Very Good	16.7.103	Very good
INTERCEPT POSS	81-62	Excellent	69-75	Average

The Saints 

Their game is based on hard defence/offence transition. The Saints have average skill level and appear to lack genuine class. Jack Steven is the A grade midfielder and their most dangerous player. He leads their Inside 50 and Clearances so he’s doing both jobs for the Saints, both inside and out. Gresham is an emerging star but then they fall away.  Other midfielders like Ross, Armitage and Dunstan do not possess elite speed, but are very competitive.  They have serious ruck issues.  Hickey is sore in the hamstring (Carlisle had to ruck last week when he was injured) and Billy Longer is injured as well.  Struggle to kick winning scores. They have had accuracy issues all year – Billings a classic example 10.18. The Saints only average 9.9 goals per week. They sit with a very poor 75.14% and rank 16th for defence. Young Gresham 32.15, Membrey 30.24 then next best Newnes with 15.15 are their key goal scorers.

Their best victory was over MFC in Round 15. Ran in waves, used footy to spread MFC coming out of D50 with wide switches. Hit scoreboard that day with 18.11. So if ‘on’ and they get good games from key players like Steven, Carlise, Gresham, Ross, Membrey and Billings they can cause a problem

 

MELBOURNE              4.2       9.3       11.6     18.9 (117)
ST KILDA                     4.3       11.6     14.10   18.11 (119)

GOALS

Melbourne: Fritsch 4, Harmes 3, Hogan 3, Brayshaw 2, Petracca, Tyson, T.McDonald, Neal-Bullen, Melksham, Lewis
St Kilda: Gresham 4, Membrey 4, McCartin 2, Savage, Steele, Clark, Newnes, Armitage, Billings, Battle, Steven

BEST Melbourne: Gawn, Brayshaw, Harmes, Viney
St Kilda: Carlisle, Billings, Gresham, Sinclair, Steele, Steven, Armitage

 The Correlation

Goals Against = points in the bank and increase % (now above 100%)

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6
• 11
• 10 (Sydney)
• 16 ( Hawks)

In 8/11 games these are the scores ‘against’ Essendon. The numbers are superb. There is a direct correlation between my old favourite ‘defensive integrity’ and improved W/L ratio. 8/10 says it all.

** In the last 3 games the opposition entries have been combined 122 inside 50 entries at an average of 40. In 2017 and early 2018 they average HIGH 50’s against. The Dons have greatly improved their capacity to:

1. Slow opposition ball movement down
2. Defend the middle of the ground
3. = Limit the amount of entries, have as strong back 6 = low scores = Increase chances to win.

BUT unfortunately against the Hawks the Dons conceded nearly 50% of what they conceded in the 3 previous games.   It was a tired ‘mentally lazy’ effort from the Dons=16 goals conceded. But credit to one of the better ball movement teams in the Hawks.

Hawthorn 16, Richmond 17 (losses) and North 16 (win) are the three largest scores against Essendon in the past 11 games.

 

Tip

The Dons looked demoralised after the Hawks loss and rightly so. Didn’t play at all well and lost by 4 points. In some ways its better to come away with a 100 point flogging and say ‘were no good’. Hawks deserved the win…Dons shouldve won! (Work that out) Any affect this week? Quite possibly the Dons will be very flat. We have seen that befoere and it may take them some time to get going. The positiveness from the skipper is great but 3 to go and 8 points plus 8% is a tough ask. Carrying 62kg and Barrier 22 in a Melbourne Cup. Can win but, riding for luck now’. Too many changes and disruptions for the Saints I reckon. So the Dons will fight the year out and despite the anticipated disappointment on missing the finals, the Dons will be too good and win by 30 + points.

However if they haven’t got over the loss to the Hawks- from a mental fatigue point of view- the Saints (fast starters) will pinch a break and may take some catching. (see Melbourne game)  On talent, depth and stats it’s a comfortable Essendon win……providing they are mentally sharp.

 

Robert Shaw

10/8/2018

 

 

 

Essendon v Hawthorn Round 20 Saturday 4th August 1.45 MCG

Just needed belief and a role. Tom Mitchell??

 

“To play catch-up”

To make a special effort to reach the same quality, standard or level that someone or something has.

So from about round ten onwards the Dons have been in catch up mode, and done it exceptionally well. One thing is for sure; that over an extended period at some stage it will take its toll. In any sport it’s the hardest thing to do; the most mentally taxing and physically tough.

I mentioned last week that when you have been in the eight for one- yes, one- week (Round 1) out of nineteen, then that is generally saying something, quite obviously. Clearly, internally and externally, Essendon were legitimately expected to propel themselves from the experience of last year’s final exit to a position somewhere around 4-6. It will be interesting (if they don’t make it) how the Dons forensically examine it, and how they sell to a very anxious and frustrated membership base.

I keep hearing fans saying that it takes time for the three new players to gel into the system. Smith, Stringer and Saad are three hardened, experienced, senior footballers. To counter that argument I give you the WCE currently sitting 2^nd on the AFL Ladder. On July 6^th 2018 the Eagles rolled out their 8^th debutant. Are the Eagles eight spots and 20% better than the Dons?

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

R7, 2018, Hawthorn 13.12 (90) d Essendon 10.7 (67) at the MCG
R1, 2017, Essendon 17.14 (116) d Hawthorn 12.19 (91) at the MCG
R12, 2016, Hawthorn 23.13 (151) d Essendon 6.7 (43) at Etihad Stadium
R13, 2015, Hawthorn 16.18 (114) d Essendon 11.10 (76) at the MCG
R2, 2015, Essendon 12.6 (78) d Hawthorn 11.10 (76) at the MCG

                      

Combining well as inside mid with Langford

 

 The REAL story of Essendon’s resurgence. 

‘Sadly’ the Bombers are playing premiership brand football, but why now?

Round 1-8 they were 18th for Inside 50….now 2nd going from 48 entries to 58. 

Gone from a handball team in the backline (dangerous) to a kicking team = Decisive

#1 Corridor team coming out of defence. 

#2 Clearance team. 

Points AGAINST have GONE DOWN by average 25 points per game.

To highlight the changed focus, understanding and appreciation of Essendon’s philosophy (post round eight), one only has to look at the statistical focus against the Swans. While this is an isolated game, it encapsulates Essendon’s last ten rounds of decisive football, which is clearly at ‘top four’ level right now.

• Allowing only eight marks Inside 50
• Twenty tackles Inside 50 was basically 30% of their overall total. Finally, Essendon really value this area of the ground as not just a goal scoring area
• Intercept Possessions eighty-one is outstanding
• Seventy-two Inside 50
• Contested Possession
• Opposition Turnovers = seventy-nine
• Essendon Intercepts = eighty-one
• Scores (Goals) Against 10.6.66 to add to 6-8-8-7-12-6-11

 

From the past TWO months of football! Are Essendon now THE BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM IN THE COMPETITION? Who would’ve thought, after being cynically labelled an AFLX ‘juggernaut’ in the preseason and early rounds? This is an outstanding turnaround. The beauty of this is that the Dons are still a very attractive team to go and watch. They just embrace and value a greater team ethic to assisting each other all over the ground and applying pressure as a unit …not as selective individuals.

Maybe they caught that ‘strange bug’ off Devon Smith. Tough-Hard-Relentless. Gee, an outsider bringing Essendon back to Essendon.

REALITY

Raging Brownlow Medal favourite Tom Mitchell is not among the best six players in the league, according to the Herald Sun Footy Fans survey.

I’d like to let you in on a secret that only you and I know about (Sssshhhh, dont let the rest of the footy world know!!). Tom Mitchell is good…VERY good.

I’d like to introduce Tom Mitchell!! This is him!!

Surely we’re past the point of questioning Tom Mitchell’s impact? Within six minutes, the Brownlow medal fancy had four disposals – all clean centre clearances – while Bailey Banfield minded Jaeger O’Meara. Banfield was shifted to Mitchell early in the first term but it made little difference. The 25-year-old went about his business tallying 42 possessions (17 contested), nine marks, seven clearances, five centre clearances, eight inside 50s, five tackles and two goals on his way to what could – and should – be another three votes. It’s the tenth time Mitchell has topped 40 touches this season and he’s increased his goal-kicking output as well. O’Meara and Isaac Smith are damaging but Mitchell is something else. He’s worth the attention.afl.com.au

The argument is, ‘does he hurt you’? That is illogically assessing that he does not have the hard running of Dangerfield, the athletic brilliance of Fyfe, the outside stamina of Gaff, the pace and run of Isaac Smith, the profile of Lance Franklin, the speed of Fantasia or the brilliance of Breust around goals, that you have to have those traits to be a gun player. So he can’t be that good? He doesn’t look that athletic, he’s not quick and he goes about his work quietly. He doesn’t attract double page spreads in newspapers. So he can’t be that good? O’Meara, Smith, Gunston, Burgoyne, Breust and originally Rioli have more natural flair than ability.

Ok let’s leave this bloke alone then. He’s not going to hurt us.

The two theories on tagging are:

• Always tag the player who is the most affected by it
• Or the most damaging setting up counter offensive either off half back or going inside 50m

Mitchell doesn’t fit that profile. Just maybe though, he’s the bloke that, by hand, foot and more importantly brain, he’s the glue that keeps the whole Hawks process in sync.

Essendon v Sydney

The 15.19 (109) to 10.6 (66) performance was the type expected of the Bombers at the start of the year, when the club aimed for a top-four position. If they don’t make the finals the blame can only be placed on themselves, given their underwhelming 2-6 start to the season.

But the turnaround has been impressive, as Essendon got back to what it does best: playing quick, decisive, devastating football which few teams can stop. Essendon had shut down Franklin. He registered just two disposals in the first half – the fewest of any player on the ground – and he looked lethargic when the ball was in his area.

If they could stop Aliir, who took six intercept marks in Essendon’s forward 50 in the first half when the Bombers could manage just three, then a win was on the cards. Brown was magnificent in adjusting his game. Dyson Heppell (31 disposals), Brendon Goddard (22) and Darcy Parish (26) were busy throughout. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (two goals, eight tackles) was influential and Devon Smith (2.3) put in another exciting game.

Just as the Bombers are rising, the Swans are in strife. The previous week’s shock loss to Gold Coast sent ripples through the competition, and the back-to-back losses puts them in jeopardy of missing finals for the first time since 2009. afl.com.au

ESSENDON  2.3   6.7  11.11  15.19 (109)
SYDNEY       3.3   6.4  10.5    10.6 (66)

GOALS
Essendon: Brown 2, McDonald-Tipungwuti 2, Baguley 2, Smith 2, Zaharakis, Parish, McKenna, Merrett, Stringer, Fantasia, Myers.
Sydney: Franklin 2, Parker, Papley, Sinclair, Heeney, Newman, Dawson, Grundy, Ronke.

BEST
Essendon: Hurley, Heppell, Myers, Merrett, Parish, Zaharakis
Sydney: Aliir, Lloyd, Kennedy, Heeney, Smith, Parker

Hawthorn v Fremantle

There will be tougher challenges on the run home, but Hawthorn’s finals bid remains on track after a clinical 59-point drubbing of Fremantle at Optus Stadium. Pressure was on Alastair Clarkson’s men to avoid a slip-up against the Dockers on their home deck, but a lightning start set the tone for a comfortable cruise back into the top eight. The Hawks’ eleventh victory of the season pushed them up to seventh spot on the ladder ahead of a mouth-watering clash with arch-rival Essendon at the MCG on Saturday, which will have major ramifications in the finals race.

Smart- Consistent-Deadly …needs a focused defensive stopper

Brownlow Medal favourite Tom Mitchell drove the victory, relishing the early freedom afforded by Ross Lyon when the Dockers’ coach neglected sending tagger Bailey Banfield to lock him down. With eleven individual goal kickers, Hawthorn’s spread of firepower blew Freo away. At the other end, the Dockers couldn’t find a reliable avenue to goal in an increasingly familiar story. They averaged only 60 points in the previous four games. afl.com.au

FREMANTLE            3.3      3.5      4.9      7.11 (53)
HAWTHORN           5.2      8.6      14.8    17.10 (112)

GOALS
Fremantle: Darcy, Banfield, Langdon, Mundy, Brayshaw, Tucker, Ryan
Hawthorn: Breust 4, Gunston 2, Mitchell 2, Schoenmakers 2, Puopolo, Roughead, Shiels, Miles, Burgoyne, Hardwick, O’Meara

BEST
Fremantle: Mundy, Neale, Langdon, Brayshaw, S.Hill
Hawthorn: Mitchell, Breust, O’Meara, Stratton, Shiels, Burgoyne

Injury List

Matt Dea (concussion) and Kyle Langford (solid knock) will obviously be monitored. Gleeson, McKernan, Redman, Daniher, Begley and Ambrose will miss. The extra days break will be great for Langford but the Dea concussion did not look good and his recovery will be very closely monitored.

The Rioli retirement was not a surprise in the Hawk camp.  But it IS a big loss. Birchall, Howe, McEvoy, Rioli and Sicily are important ones for the Hawks.

Selection

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. An early night at selection for the Dons and with team momentum and form this stability is important. Possibly a last minute check on Langford sore spots and Fantasia’s groin is likely of weekly concern.

He may not be a household name to Essendon people but young Hawk inclusion Harry Morrison is a fine young player.

‘Steady as she goes’

From the Stat Sheet (Season Averages) 

Must say it’s pretty even which is encouraging for the Dons. Contested and Uncontested Possessions are almost identical. Interesting edge to the Dons in Clearances.

 

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	HAWKS
Disposals	8th	5th
Marks	5th	4th
Tackles	5th	4TH
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	8th
Goals	9th  12.1	4th 13.3
Contested Possessions	11th	13th
Uncontested Poss.	4th	3rd
Disposal Effectiveness	6th	1st
Marks Inside 50	3rd	4th
Clearances	10th	15th
Centre Clearances	8th	12th
Stoppages	10th	15th
Handballs	9th	11th
Points Against	9th 1482	3rd 1329
Inside 50’s	6th	3rd
Forward 50 Chains	10th	3rd
%	102	122

 

 Game x Game Summaries

The clear highlight being 72 Inside 50 entries against a Sydney team and conceding only 39. Again ‘scores against ‘are very low and ‘marks conceded’ Inside 50 were only 8. For the amount of Inside 50’s Essendon’s efficiency was poor at 42%. Tackles forward 50 (20) continue to be a great focus for the players and a direct correlation between conceding inside 50 and slowing opposition ball movement down. This is greatly assisting lower scores being kicked against the Essendon defence. The Dons still managed 34 scoring shots but were exceptionally wasteful.

STATISTIC	FREO	COMMENT	SYDNEY	COMMENT
STOPPAGES	26-17	Very good	19-24	Average
CENT CLEARANCES	15-11	Good	16-10	Good
INSIDE 50	62	Very Good	72	Excellent
INSIDE 50 AGAINST	36	Excellent	39	Excellent
SCORE AGAINST	11.4.70	Excellent	10.6.66	Excellent
MARKS INSIDE 50	22	Very Good	12-8	Average
TACKLES	69-54	Good	65-47	Good
CONTESTED POSS.	157-137	Excellent	156-141	Very Good
UNCONSTESTED P	226-187	Good	225-185	Good
MARKS AGAINST FWD 50	10	Very good	8	Very Good
UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST	64	Very Good	80	Good
TACKLES FORW 50	15	Good	20	Excellent
KICK/HB RATIO	209-171	Average	222-156	Very Good
EFFICENCY INSIDE 50	53%	Good	42%	Poor
MARKS TOTAL	86-68	Good	90-95	Average
SCORE FOR	13.21	Good	15.19	Very Good
INTERCEPT POSS			81-62	Excellent
OPPO TURNOVER			79	Excellent

                                      

The man for Breust if he gets away?

 The Correlation

Goals Against = points in the bank and increase %  (now above 100%)

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6
• 11
• 10 (Sydney)

In 8/10 games these are the scores ‘against’ Essendon. The numbers are superb. There is a direct correlation between my old favourite ‘defensive integrity’ and improved W/L ratio. 8/10 says it all.

• The Gold Coast (47 inside 50 entries) kicked inaccurately with 6.15 but another good team defensive effort from Essendon.
• Fremantle kicked 11.4.70 from ONLY 36 INSIDE 50 ENTRIES.  This is outstanding from Essendon
• The powerful Sydney team were restricted to 39 Inside 50’s and kicked 10.6.66. Extraordinary from Essendon.

• The Hawks are the fourth highest scoring team in the AFL this year and the Dons will likely need to kick more than 100 points to beat them. This will be a great test of Essendon’s capacity to put their much improved defensive integrity on show.

** In the last 3 games the opposition entries have been combined 122 inside 50 entries at an average of 40. In 2017 and early 2018 they average HIGH 50’s against. The Dons have greatly improved their capacity to:

1. Slow opposition ball movement down
2. Defend the middle of the ground
3. = Limit the amount of entries, have as strong back 6 = low scores = Increase chances to win. 

The Hawks

Are a VERY dangerous team. Points ‘For’ are 4th. Points ‘Against’ are 3rd. They play a strong forward half (pressure intensity game) and will place enormous pressure on McKenna, Saad and Goddard. They are third best time in forward half so they get it there and keep it in there. They also force the third highest front half turnovers.

These stats, if maintained, will really worry Essendon.

Hawthorn will be very keen to play at their tempo…NOT Essendon’s. Hawks will be in trouble if they attempt to play ‘slingshot footy’ and take Essendon on. They will look to control the football, the pace of their ball movement and the execution of their kicking. It is still the case that if the Hawks have 90+ uncontested marks they have a 100% record. Their ball movement and kicking patterns won premierships. This is not the same team, but it’s a good team.

Summary and Tip

Essendon led by seven points at half-time in round seven before the Hawks kicked six goals to one behind in the third term. Tom Mitchell starred with 29 disposals, one goal, ten tackles and eight clearances. Both sides have been strong marking the ball inside 50 this season; Essendon is ranked third averaging 12.7 and the Hawks fourth with an average of 12.3. Hawthorn has dominated Essendon recently, winning eight of the last ten matches including four by more than fifty points. No team has been cleaner disposing the football this season than the Hawks, ranked first for disposal efficiency at 74.7 per cent, ahead of the Bombers equal sixth on 73 per cent. The Bombers will be aiming for four consecutive wins for the first time since rounds 14-17, 2013; Hawthorn will be hoping for their seventh win from nine games. afl.com.au

The discussion will always centre around Tom Mitchell. Both sides have injuries but Hawks players seem more difficult to cover. Hawks have been beaten twice by the Brisbane Lions with aggressive, vibrant ball movement. Essendon will present the same issues. The Hawks key ‘outside’ is the important Isaac Smith. So in simple terms, Essendon’s success maybe to control the inside (Mitchell) and nullify the outside run (Smith).

Back from injury

Gold Coast, Fremantle and Sydney were comfortably predicted.  This is not. I ‘fear’- read respect- the Clarkson factor. Essendon’s current football is very good. They have  attack/defence balance plus confidence and momentum. But the difficulty of playing ‘catch up’ week in week out WILL take its toll. It takes a lot of energy and mental toughness to ‘defend’.  In down hill skiing you just hold on and let gravity go to work. Then try walking back up the mountain. Essendon are doing a lot of walking back up the mountain, which is great!

Both teams will provide each other with major concerns. There are some very, very good players out on the ground. History is finished . This game is so much about NOW and 2018.

I can’t pick this with head or heart. Has to be close doesn’t it?

Fence-sitter- and rightly so. I’m looking forward to just sitting back and watching this one evolve.

Either team under 18 points.

 

Robert Shaw

3/8/2018

 

 

 

 

Essendon v Sydney Round 19 Friday 27/7/2018 7.50 Etihad Stadium

19 points up, 6 minutes to go. Then this …..

Mid Week Preview

Reality

I think it was Denis Pagan with one of his great sayings about REALITY: “Don’t p!&% on my leg and tell me it’s raining”.

Folks, your team has been in the top eight ONCE in 18-19 Rounds and that was Round one!! I know Essendon are the second best performed team in the past 9 rounds, but what the bloody hell does that mean for goodness sake in the big picture?  Either the Dons have massively underachieved (add Carlton, Dogs, Dockers and even Demons to the WL column) or the fact is this is where we are; a 10^th -14^th team. They are the facts. Injuries cannot be blamed as Essendon as a team have actually improved with a significant injury list. Stop glossing over performance, get tougher, achieve greatness and take a bloody really hard look at who may well win the premiership in 2018. Good luck to them, but from an Essendon perspective, it is pretty sad. Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Port, WCE, Geelong, North…??? Melbourne!! ONE of those teams will win a premiership while ‘we’ sit in the grandstand sipping beers and eating jam donuts. Are they THAT much better? Nope! Just hope Essendon respond strongly; like Richmond, WCE and Collingwood did in their internal reviews of post 2016 and 2017. Seems to have worked. They currently sit 1^st 2^nd and 3^rd.  Don’t pour raspberry jam on stale bread and tell me it tastes like nanna’s homemade scones.

Ok, vent completed. So the past is done and dusted, and the future is important. But let’s focus on the Swans

Beware the wounded Swans.

Essendon has a six-day turnaround before hosting a wounded Sydney at Etihad Stadium on Friday night. No team has a history of bouncing back as hard as Sydney have over the journey, but they are lacking key midfield experience and leadership in Jack, Grundy (FB), McVeigh and  Hannebery. Gary Rohan had surgery on a broken hand, leaving the door well and truly open. Essendon remain clinging to hope but basically chasing -20% is going to be difficult. By keeping opposition scores low, with a much improved focus on organised defence, Essendon have improved their percentage from low 80’s to basically 100% (99.9). Cats 118-Hawks 119-Demons 127-Giants 112 highlight the heavy penalty Essendon paid early in the season for ‘leaving the barn door open’ with an unaccountable game system in the first eight weeks. Since that time, Essendon have been the 2^nd best performed team in the competition and the questions will be asked; ‘why’? It can’t be injuries as, with, respect, it does not appear to have had any affect at all.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS
EF, 2017, Sydney 19.7 (121) d Essendon 8.8 (56) at the SCG
R14, 2017, Sydney 11.20 (86) d Essendon 12.13 (85) at the SCG
R7, 2016, Sydney 20.15 (135) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at the SCG
R1, 2015, Sydney 10.12 (72) d Essendon 9.6 (60) at ANZ Stadium
R19, 2014, Sydney 11.13 (79) d Essendon 8.9 (57) at the SCG

Forward Structure

No Daniher and now no McKernan. Stringer returns after passing a mid week fitness test.

Now Essendon find themselves without both Daniher and McKernan in what could quite clearly (in hindsight) have been the starting forward talls in 2018. Essendon will be tempted to throw Hooker forward, but I would initially resist that, because of my philosophy on ‘moving a strength to cover a weakness’. You may in fact end up with two weaknesses. Be careful what you wish for. But Michael Hartley could also have come in to play a defensive game on Franklin to allow Hooker forward. Francis, Stewart and Leuenberger are the other talls and I would certainly consider Laverde also in that mobile forward role. Goddard and Hooker can both swing forward during the game but that would require Francis to play as a tall option. The Dons may also go small and opt for medium height and continue to provide problems for the Swans with mobility. The positive is that they are not short of options, but are running out of tall first option targets.

Staying a lot more Inside 50. Is the champ sore?

 

Sydney Forward Structure and Lance Franklin

Lance Franklin was held goalless last week for the first time this season. But he has a great record against the Bombers, having kicked 68 goals in 15 games against Essendon across his career. It’s the most goals the champion forward has kicked against any club. There’s no denying the absence of Sam Reid has affected Sydney’s ability to score. Without the premiership forward, Franklin has played alongside the likes of Will Hayward, Tom McCartin, Ben Ronke and Tom Papley, all of whom are 22 or under. The result has been not only patchy performances from the youngsters — which of course is to be expected — but also Franklin being double and triple teamed. While at times the Swans have found another avenue to goal when Franklin has had an off day, the club had no answers against the Suns, who kept the home team goalless for two consecutive quarters.Sarah Olle @saraholle Source : Fox Sports

Triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown praised unheralded Sun Rory Thompson’s superb performance on Franklin. But he also conceded Thompson had exposed a massive flaw with the Swans.

“Rory Thompson did a great job on Buddy Franklin, holding him goalless. He was sensational,” Brown said on Fox Footy’s On The Couch. “He’s got elite speed so he’s got the speed that’s capable to go with Buddy. What I liked was the early interruption. In marking contests he was getting into Franklin’s back. Not giving away free kicks, but just subtle enough to unbalance Buddy all day. It illustrates the problem Sydney has got. They are too reliant on Buddy to do something special in games. We saw it last week. He pulled them out of the fire and got them home. He’s done it several times this year.”

** I had a theory about the Swans insistence on going to Franklin ALL the time, which a) means he loves the ball coming at him and demands it, and b) the opposition can set up a plan. (900 goals later I don’t think those plans have worked) . In fact, the Swans target Franklin only 33% of the time as they come down the field. Richmond target Jack Riewoldt 29% of the time. Generally showing both team will rely on goal spread and multi options. That is the average for the year. Without soild support for Lance it makes you wonder what the percentages are for say the past month. Gold Coast worked it so, with respect, surely Essendon can!

Note: This is one of the reasons Essendon had to seriously consider Aaron Francis. In isolation, he is a brave contested mark and probably Essendon’s best intercept mark. It would allow Hooker/Hurley/Brown/Francis to adjust forward or back and tactically.  Francis can go 2 v 1 on Franklin.  It will also depend on the fitness of Stringer, who looks ok. There are many reasons put forward on Social Media as to the ‘why’s and wherefores’ that he isn’t playing. But no, he’s not sulking, leaving next year or NO he doesn’t prefer VFL because of some fear of the big stage. It may not be an issue of team balance but that is also valid to a point as JW points out.   Despite putting a lot of great VFL games together and his continuity (4 of which I have seen myself live) there is still the doubt on his stamina at AFL level. Otherwise known as ‘his tank’. But with a team that has been in the 8 just once it would have been nice to see him selected for the future. So that’s it.

Note: Despite media reports that Stewarts form has been  “strong VFL form”, Francis has clearly outplayed him in that form duel. Stringer if fit (named) obviously comes in. But Stewart is a very fit ‘up and back’ runner. That’s where Worsfold will generally head. Purely fitness.

Forward? Back? Or Buddy?

Essendon v Fremantle

Fantasia (groin) missed the past fortnight while Zaharakis (shoulder) last played in round 11.Without them, the misfiring Bombers’ already-slim finals hopes may have been up in smoke at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night. Fantasia’s five goals and Zaharakis’ 26 disposals instead inspired Essendon to a 13.21 (99) to 11.4 (70) victory over Fremantle which keeps alive its chances of still playing in September.

Essendon largely dominated a young Fremantle line-up but still found the plucky visitors’ tag tough to shake. Everything bar the scoreboard was lopsided, with the Bombers winning disposals (380-319), contested possessions (157-137), clearances (41-28), marks inside 50 (22-10) and inside 50s (63-35) in a canter. Afl.com.au

ESSENDON   2.5   4.11   9.16   13.21   (99)
FREMANTLE   4.0   7.1   10.4   11.4   (70)

GOALS
Essendon: Fantasia 5, Brown 3, Smith 2, Baguley, Zaharakis, Myers
Fremantle: Walters 3, Johnson 2, Neale, Cerra, Sutcliffe, Mundy, Matera, McCarthy

BEST
Essendon: Smith, Zaharakis, Fantasia, Heppell, Merrett, Hurley
Fremantle: Neale, Walters, Banfield, Pearce, Hamling, Wilson

INJURIES
Essendon: McKernan (left hamstring)
Fremantle: Darcy (groin, replaced in side by Johnson)

 

Sydney v Gold Coast

GOLD COAST has snapped an 11-game losing streak after beating Sydney by 24 points in one of the upsets of the season at the SCG on Saturday. The Suns were winless from eight previous attempts against the Swans and looked like heading back to Queensland with another demoralising defeat when they trailed by 29 points at quarter-time, but kicked eleven goals to two for the rest of the match in a stunning turnaround to win 12.16 (88) to 8.16 (64). Aaron Young was a star for the visitors with four goals, while big man Jarrod Witts had his way with Swans duo Callum Sinclair and debutant Darcy Cameron.

Sydney coach John Longmire was at a loss to explain his team’s poor fadeout.

“Regardless of where you are on the ladder, teams are going to get momentum at different stages and we didn’t adjust in the second quarter,” he said. “We lost one on ones, it snowballed and we couldn’t push back, and we kept turning it over and turning it over and turning it over. To the Suns’ credit that pressured us hard and if you keep doing the same thing like we were doing in the second quarter, you’ll get the same result”. afl.com.au

SYDNEY           6.4       6.7       6.10     8.16 (64)
GOLD COAST   1.5       7.7       9.12     12.16 (88)

GOALS
Sydney: Papley 3, Parker 2, Jones, Florent, Hayward
Gold Coast: Young 4, Sexton 3, Weller 2, Miller, Heron, Holman

BEST
Sydney: Kennedy, Parker, Aliir, Florent, Rampe, Cunningham
Gold Coast: Young, Weller, Thompson, Sexton, Witts, Miller

INJURIES
Sydney: Nil
Gold Coast: Nil

Injury List

Orazio Fantasia and David Zaharakis’ return proved to be a significant point of difference. The down side is the serious loss of the structurally important McKernan as not only a key target and goal kicker but also a support ruckman. The second ruck support may in fact generally tip the scales Stewart’s way despite the fact that his form in the VFL has been average. But if a second ruck option is needed then Stewart has played the role before.

Ambrose, Daniher, Begley and Gleeson are not even close while Stinger continues to improve from that 3 week calf strain and has been named after satisfying the coach. McKenna, who has formed part of an exciting running backline also returns.

No McVeigh, Reid, Hannebery, Grundy, Mills and Rohan had a broken hand surgically repaired, and some doubt on the medial ligament strain of the industrious Kieran Jack. McVeigh, Hannebery and Jack are great stabilisers through the mid for the Swans and Reid and Mills are very important at either end of the ground and Rohan the explosive X Factor. The suggestion is that Jack will get up.Grundy is the full back and a key player.

Essendon have been superb at covering injuries (7W 2L from last 9), or not so much ‘covering’ as exposing or giving opportunity. Their depth is very good.

 

Thursday Night Selection

So here we are at 7.18pm on Thursday night and I’m about to update.

Heath Grundy gets back to add support to a backline that has been stretched.

There is NO McVeigh, NO Jack and NO Hannebery. 

There are NO 4 points going back to Sin City either.

The Swans have a serious amount of talent in the small/medium forward department. Hayward, Florent, Ronke, Papley and Heeney , plus the robust forward play of Luke Parker.  The critically important full back Heath Grundy has missed the last two games ‘rested’ and in NEAFL.

Despite the debate over Francis, as you can see I actually thought Stewart would get the nod because he can lend good support to Bellchambers. McKenna comes back from a groin and McNeice can consider himself unlucky, but sometimes it is ‘like for like’. They got it right with Colyer ( Stringer in) and Mckernan is very unlucky with injury.

** In my opinion only Daniher and Gleeson force their way into this side . Big ticks to Redman, Ridley, and Ambrose, but this is about as good as it gets for the Dons. This is a very strong side.

From the Stats Sheet

Reduction in opposition scores have been significant for Essendon as it has seen the all-important percentage rise from low 80’s to NOW  99.9 and thus being competitive. Unfortunately it is still short by 15-20% means it is still ‘two games ‘out for the Dons. Shootouts do nothing for % apart from the fact that it entertains the commentators. Cats 118-Hawks 119-Demons 127-Giants 112 highlight the heavy penalty Essendon paid early in the season for ‘leaving the barn door open’.

Stats show that Essendon will ‘outrun’ Sydney in the uncontested game, while the Swans will look to hammer the Dons in Contested Possession and Clearances. Marks Inside 50 significantly favour the Dons and with the roof shut- as different to outside at SCG- this will be important. Essendon have a serious differential in Inside 50’s but what we can’t exactly measure from these figures is the Sydney pressure on the day. Traditionally the best and most consistent in the business, but they have had some serious strong leadership out in Grundy, Mcveigh, Jack and Hannebery

 

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	SYDNEY
Disposals	7th	11th
Marks	7th	13th
Tackles	6th	10TH
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	7th
Goals	11th 11.5	8th 12.5
Contested Possessions	11th	8th
Uncontested Poss.	5th	12th
Disposal Effectiveness	7th	9th
Marks Inside 50	3rd	11th
Clearances	8th	6th
Centre Clearances	13th	9th
Stoppages	6th	7th
Handballs	8th	6th
Points Against	11th 1416	5th 1263
Inside 50’s	8th	14th
Forward 50 Chains	10th	13th
%	99.9	114.2

 

Game x Game Summaries

Not two of the best opposition teams going around but both games followed a similar format. Pretty ordinary first half before drawing away to have comfortable 4-7 goal wins, and playing better footy in the second half. In isolation this form won’t trouble finals contenders if the Dons make it, but with such a tough draw (Sydney, Hawks, Saints, Tigers and Port) if they do get in they will have to be in very good form.

STATISTIC GCOAST COMMENT FREO COMMENT STOPPAGES 33-21 Excellent 26-17 Very good CENT CLEARANCES 7-11 Poor 15-11 Good INSIDE 50 66 Very Good 62 Very Good INSIDE 50 AGAINST 47 Excellent 36 Excellent SCORE AGAINST 6.15.51 Excellent 11.4.70 Excellent MARKS INSIDE 50 19 Very Good 22 Very Good TACKLES 69 Good 69-54 Good CONTESTED POSS. 158-137 Excellent 157-137 Excellent UNCONSTESTED P 271-169 Excellent 226-187 Good MARKS AGAINST FORW 50 8 Very Good 10 Very good UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST 66 Very Good 64 Very Good TACKLES FORW 50 16 Very Good 15 Good KICK/HB RATIO 256-169 Excellent 209-171 Average EFFICENCY INSIDE 50 59% Very Good 53% Good MARKS TOTAL 121 Excellent 86-68 Good SCORE FOR 13.17.95 Good 13.21 Good

                                            

Added a nice dimension since recovering from injury

It’s all Gary Rohan’s fault

And PLEASE no revenge talk of 2017 Gary Rohan ‘throwing Marty Gleeson over the fence’. When you are 19 points up with 6 minutes to go that’s not Gary Rohan’s fault. Neither was the 19.7 – 8.8 scoreline in the Elimination Final.

If you wish to prove a point to Sydney, I suggest you play good footy and show them how much Essendon have improved. ONLY statement needed is the scoreboard.

Won’t be able to blame Gary Rohan this week as he’s out with a broken hand.

The Swans

They have serious leadership and experience issues, and on top of that the incredible decision to play Grundy in the NEAFL that brought it to a total of 1013 games of experience out of the team. They miss the key stabiliser in McVeigh. Against the Suns they had 10 players with 32 games or less experience and coughed up a 29 point lead in which they went goalless for two quarters. This was their fifth loss at the SCG in 2018 which sounds like they won’t actually mind getting out of the joint. They have lost 3-4 and had it not been for Aliir’s last gasp goal the last month would have been donuts.

Apart from 16 goals against North their last month have yielded just 11, 9 and 8 goals. Franklin was goalless but has kicked 42.28 for the year and will set himself for a huge game. Hayward 26.13, Parker 21.6, Ronke 21.9 are the next goal kickers in line.  Steven May took 14 marks in defence against them showing that a very good interceptor (Hooker or Francis) is essential against this inexperience Swan’s forward line.

Hewett is a much improved player in the Swans mid. This is a player that in the first month I suggested Langford could model himself on and make a role for himself. I’m so pleased for Langford’s development. Hewett gets to take Heppell or Merrett depending on who Longmire thinks influences Essendon games the most.

The Swans defence has been their trademark, and their greatest strength is to work together and come off their opponent. Essendon’s ball use must be low and pinpoint mobile targets; Rampe will otherwise zone off and intercept. Part of Essendon’s planning must be to take Rampe out of the ‘30m hole’, as he has been known to struggle on the last line of defence as he is not super quick off the mark, and tends to get caught behind. Let’s see if Essendon can work him out or even expose him. Last week the Gold Coast Suns had 61 Inside 50 against the Swan’s midfield at home, placing a lot of pressure on a backline missing McVeigh , Grundy, Mills and even Reid dropping back.

Essendon have them right where they want them.  Now what can they do about it?

 The Correlation

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6
• 11

At the threat of boring you I shall continue this theme of consistency. I have left a lot of this stuff on. While we love footy played at an exciting level it is hard to argue with the defensive facts from Essendon, AND they are still exciting. Guess everything in sync and balance is the key. The Tigers and the Bulldogs were both exciting teams in their premiership years. Both brilliantly defensive; it can be done.

In 7/9 games these are the scores ‘against’ Essendon. The numbers are superb. There is a direct correlation between my old favourite ‘defensive integrity’ and improved W/L ratio. 7/9 says it all. A change of philosophy? A greater appreciation of team defence/ More pride from the group?  A change in training focus?

For too long Essendon have been known as a freewheeling excitement machine. The Dons have enough creative and exciting players that bring natural excitement in any case so this is NOT a case of stifling excitement. It’s about adding a tougher edge to what has been known as a very inconsistent, flaky team at times over the years. When you get balance, you get wins. You roll the dice in shootouts and that’s entertaining and great to watch. Probably end up with a 50/50 record in shoot outs. But you win when you hold teams to under 10 goals, and you only have to look at the last 3 premiers ‘scores against in finals’.

• Against Collingwood the Dons were back on their defensive target only allowing 12.6.78 points against. Normally this is a match winning achievement but the Pies upped the ante and defensively restricted the Dons to 9.8.62. Both sides actually really good defensively with Pies class at the end being the difference.
• The Gold Coast are the worst second half team in the competition and after making the Dons look pretty ordinary they kicked 2.4.16 in that half . They kicked inaccurately with 6.15 but another good team defensive effort from Essendon.
• Fremantle kicked 11.4.70 from ONLY 36 INSIDE 50 ENTRIES.  This is outstanding from Essendon

 Tip

Sydney has dominated Essendon in recent years, winning its past eight matches against the Bombers. The Swans have beaten Essendon in 10 of the past 11 encounters. This is a rare contest between the sides in Melbourne, the first since early in 2014. The Bombers haven’t tended to enjoy the Friday night stage. They have won their past two games in the slot but had lost their previous 10 games on a Friday night. In contrast, Sydney has won eight of its past 11 Friday night games in Victoria. afl.com.au

Now for the more recent and real facts. It’s just not happening this Friday night against a fit in form side from Windy Hill. None of this will matter. Swans in big trouble injury wise and they will throw everything at the Dons. Great opportunity for Essendon to prove they can absorb genuine pressure and withstand then lift and go again. Absolute lunacy to disregard a full on Swans assault as they are the masters of the ‘bounce back’.

• Work out how to deal with Franklin by learning and watching how GC went about it. So interesting, especially if he is carrying some sort of injury.
• Josh Kennedy in the centre is the heart beat.
• Plan for Rampe

Ted says ‘hard conversarions and honest feedback will turn the Swans around’

I say  ‘there is NO McVeigh, NO Jack and NO Hannebery. SO…there are NO 4 points going back to Sin City either.

Essendon by 24 points. Settled, even spread of talent and contributors and a great self and team belief = Momentum.

Have a great night at the footy and dont miss your train. 

Robert Shaw

27/7/2018

Round 18 Essendon v Fremantle Saturday July 21st 4.35 Etihad Stadium

Really back to top flight, but Lyon is a tagging coach

So you are telling me you’re a chance?

Ok, so you want me to talk finals? Generally a waste of time, thinking ahead, but if that’s what interests you, then let’s give it a go. So Essendon are 8-8 with a percentage of 97.7. If they had 3.3 more % it would be the ‘perfect’ 50% season. (but 25% short of their capability). Great for some. Three games short for the Dons IMO. Can’t get back those Carlton, Fremantle and Bulldogs losses. They are gone and they hurt. Realistically, the Dons should be sitting 11-5. or 10-6 more likely based on the talent factor. We know what you can do with your ‘talent’!

The remaining games are against Fremantle at ES, Sydney Swans at ES, Hawthorn at MCG, St Kilda at ES, Richmond at MCG and Port Adelaide at AO. This equates to the fourth-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 107.27, three top 8 opponents, one game out of home state). The percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 39.5%. (Fox Sports)

If Adelaide’s run to September would be ‘very unlikely’, Essendon’s is tougher. They fought past Gold Coast in the second half, because in the first half it looked like their season was about to end. I can’t see the Bombers getting to 14 wins though, as the percentage means they will be locked with a number of teams if they get to 13. That would mean beating all of Sydney, Hawthorn, Richmond and Port Adelaide — and their percentage is even worse than Adelaide’s, so 13 won’t be enough.

This is all very well, but the variables are Fremantle’s extensive injury list and the following week Sydney at Etihad without Hannebery, McVeigh, Rohan, Jack (possible) and Mills. You never have that much success relying on others to fail. It’s always better in the driver’s seat controlling your own destiny, rather than in the back seat calling out changes in direction, so while it is a ‘boring’ cliché, just settle down and take it one week at a time.

From March 23^rd to May 12^th with a 2-6 record and a % in the 80’s, the damage was already done. From May 19^th –July 14^th with a 6-2 record Essendon is playing up to expectations and ability. This is no surprise at all, just their capability.

First eight games ranking of 2/10. Second eight games ranking of 7.5-8/10.

 

Last 5 Meetings

LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R2, 2018, Fremantle Dockers 16.10 (106) d Essendon 14.6 (90) at Optus Stadium
R23, 2017, Essendon 16.11 (107) d Fremantle Dockers 14.8 (92) at Etihad Stadium
R7, 2017, Fremantle Dockers 17.14 (116) d Essendon 11.13 (79) at Subiaco Oval
R11, 2016, Fremantle Dockers 20.6 (126) d Essendon 6.11 (47) at Subiaco Oval
R6, 2015, Fremantle Dockers 12.8 (80) d Essendon 7.10 (52) at Subiaco Oval

Essendon v Gold Coast Review

A BIG second half helped Essendon shake free of Gold Coast and keep its final eight hopes flickering with a 44-point win at Metricon Stadium on Saturday night. After trailing by five points at half-time, the Bombers put together 15 minutes of clean football early in the third term to give themselves breathing space on the way to a 13.17 (95) to 6.15 (51) victory. They kicked nine goals to two after the main break to make it six wins in eight matches, and momentarily move one win plus percentage outside the eight.

Impressive steps in 2018

The loss was Gold Coast’s 11th straight – the second longest losing streak in club history. For the victors, skipper Dyson Heppell (36 disposals) led superbly, while Zach Merrett (37) also made the most of playing without a tag. Michael Hurley (24 and 10 marks) and Cale Hooker (19 and nine marks) cut off a stack of the Suns’ forward forays, while Adam Saad (19) had a mixed return to Metricon Stadium, offering plenty of drive, but also conceding three goals to tagger Nick Holman. afl.com

GOLD COAST   2.8       4.11     4.14     6.15 (51)
ESSENDON     2.4       4.6       8.10     13.17 (95)

GOALS
Gold Coast: Holman 3, Young 2, Sexton
Essendon: Baguley 3, Guelfi 2, McKernan 2, Smith, Long, Parish, Brown, Myers, McDonald-Tipungwuti

BEST  
Gold Coast: Holman, May, Martin, Miller
Essendon: Hurley, Smith, Hooker, Heppell, Merrett, Langford

INJURIES 
Gold Coast: Steven May (hip)
Essendon: Nil

Fremantle v Port Adelaide Review

There was NOTHING pretty about it, but Fremantle returned to the winners’ list and dealt a hefty blow to Port Adelaide’s top-two ambitions with an upset nine-point victory at Optus Stadium on Sunday. Rubbing salt into the wounds for the Power were injuries to arguably their two biggest stars; Paddy Ryder and Robbie Gray. Ryder played no part after hurting a hip flexor during the second quarter, while Gray went down early in the third term after being knocked out cold when his head hit the ground in a Ryan Nyhuis tackle.

In a game marred by basic skill errors, Freo found avenues to goal after half-time, booting seven of the first nine majors to hold a 22-point lead at the 15-minute mark of the final term. The Power tried to mount a late surge but Brad Ebert and Lindsay Thomas fluffed their lines in tough shots and failed to score, summing up a forgettable trip west. While conditions were slippery, there were few excuses for a shocking first half, which was like witnessing the aftermath of a car crash – you wanted to stop watching but couldn’t look away. From a combined 46 inside 50s, only three goals were kicked and none during a diabolical second term. afl.com

FREMANTLE                        1.0      1.7      5.10    8.11 (59)
PORT ADELAIDE                2.3      2.3      4.6      7.8 (50)

GOALS
Fremantle: Cox 2, Sutcliffe, Hughes, Jones, Mundy, McCarthy, Walters
Port Adelaide: Wingard 2, Westhoff, S.Gray, Powell-Pepper, Watts, Boak

BEST 
Fremantle: Mundy, Neale, Ryan, Langdon, Cox, Darcy
Port Adelaide: Wines, Polec, Powell-Pepper, Wingard, Westhoff

INJURIES 
Fremantle: Nil
Injury List

The Dons have been missing some very good players in Joe Daniher (groin) — 2-4 weeks, Martin Gleeson (ankle) — 4-6 weeks, David Zaharakis (collarbone),  Mason Redman (ankle) — 4-6 weeks Patrick Ambrose (hamstring) — 9 weeks, Jake Stringer (calf) — 3 weeks but in the positive they are very optimistic Orazio Fantasia (groin) will return. They have done well to manage and balance their injuries, which has answered some queries on Essendon’s talent pool. If they are developed and promoted (persevered with), there is nothing wrong with Essendon’s list apart from attracting/developing one big bodied extra mid to complement.

Similarly, the Dockers have significant ‘outs’. Hayden Ballantyne (ankle) — TBC, the ultra-impressive Andrew Brayshaw (groin) — Test , Critical players in Nat Fyfe (hamstring) — 3 weeks And Aaron Sandilands (calf) — TBC, together with Lee Spurr (knee) — TBC, Matt Taberner (foot) — 2 weeks Griffin Logue (ankle) — 2 weeks and the tough on-baller Connor Blakely (knee) — season.

Selection

Great to see Ridley back in the squad and if Saad is still sore and with McKenna already out, I hope he gets a run. Very handy ‘ins’ for the Dons, which places Essendon’s most valuable grouping of players back together for only the 7th time out of 16 games; Smith-Zaharakis-Fantasia.

Stephen Hill is a significant loss for the Dockers and add Sandilands’ non inclusion and this game is over.

 

Smith Fantasia and Zaharakis will be together for only the 7th time in 2018!

Essendon Trinity

In English football, the United Trinity refers to the Manchester United trio of Best, Law and Charlton, who helped United become the first ever English club team to win the European Cup of 1968… I’m not for one minute suggesting that Devon Smith, Orazio Fantasia and David Zaharakis are in that legend status, but relative to performance and importance they offer Essendon a very unique combination. Very good players in isolation, but more so in combination, far more important. They are particularly balanced and potentially destructive. All of them bring something different, mould it together and it is potentially Essendon’s most important player combination.  Imagine them working together at one time…I couldn’t be bothered scanning through all the games (my minions do that), but out of 16 games do you wonder how many they have played together? (you lot will have the answer in minutes! No prizes for being right, it is 6!!).  I know Essendon people would love them working ‘as one’. Characteristics include, Smith hard inside, Zaharakis relentless stamina and Fantasia non-stop up and back.  The sooner they are all in, the better as they have completed only 6 games together. 

From the Stats Sheet

Reduction in opposition scores have been significant for Essendon as it has seen the all-important % rise from low 80’s to 97.7 and now competitive. Unfortunately, it is still short by 15-20% and means it is still ‘two games’ out for the Dons. Shootouts do nothing for percentage apart from the fact that it entertains the commentators. You have to keep ‘scores against’ down.

I reckon they have always been in the ‘bottom four’ for tackling.  Over a year they have jumped from 15^th to 4^th. So you combine this with ‘scores against’ and this is a great change in mindset/focus. There is no coincidence that performance has increased significantly and if you then add ‘Goals Against’. 6-8-8-7-6 (in past 8 games), which  is outstanding, and I’ll guarantee you these type of numbers will eventually get Essendon to win a final a lot quicker than a 22-19 shootout.

If Essendon ‘win’ the Marks Inside 50 dual, break even in Clearances and maintain their tackle numbers they should have another solid win. Both clubs are at the low end of the Inside 50 scale so efficiency plus Marks Inside 50 are going to favour the Dons at Etihad and thus lead to the Win .

Percentage is always a great indicator and the Dockers’ is extremely low.

 

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	FREMANTLE
Disposals	7th	13th
Marks	4th	6th
Tackles	5th	16TH
Tackles Inside Forw.50	10th	9th
Goals	12th 11.9	14th 10.4
Contested Possessions	11th	17th
Uncontested Poss.	4th	5th
Disposal Effectiveness	7th	6th
Marks Inside 50	3rd	15th
Clearances	9th	14th
Centre Clearances	15th	9th
Stoppages	6th	14th
Handballs	8th	10th
Points Against	10th 1346	11th 1382
Inside 50’s	11th	16th
Forward 50 Chains	10th	13th
%	97	83

Game x Game Summaries

Apart from Centre Clearances it was a complete demolition on the Stats Sheet by Essendon. Quite interesting given the very poor standard of play in the first half (4.6.30). So with such a domination and a huge Uncontested Game, did the Bombers become too wasteful and not punish the Suns enough? Every stat showed excellent balance and the ‘score against’, again, outstanding. A 9.11 to 2.4 second half reflected the statistical domination.

 

STATISTIC NORTH COMM COLL COMM GC COMM STOPPAGES 24-15 Excellent 25-32 Poor 33-21 Excell CENT CLEARANCES 17-18 Good 12-10 Good 7-11 Poor INSIDE 50 61 Very Good 46 Poor 66 Very Good INSIDE 50 AGAINST 55 Average 47 Excell 47 Excell SCORE AGAINST 16.12.108 Poor 12.6.78 V Good 6.15.51 Excell MARKS INSIDE 50 13 Average 12 Average 19 Very Good TACKLES 68-55 Good 56-58 Average 69 Good CONTESTED POSS. 144-137 Very Good 135-152 Average 158-137 Excell UNCONSTESTED POSS. 261-221 Very Good 253-229 V Good 271-169 Excell MARKS AGAINST FORW 50 16 Average 12 Good 8 Very Good UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST 90 Average 73 V Good 66 Very Good TACKLES FORW 50 17-9 Excellent 11-5 Good 16 Very Good KICK/HB RATIO 214-187 Average 207-176 Average 256-169 Excell EFFICENCY INSIDE 50 56%-56% Very Good 43% Poor 59% Very Good MARKS TOTAL 91-105 Average 92-88 Good 121 Excell SCORE FOR 19.11 Excellent 9.8.62 Poor 13.17 Good

The Dockers

Fremantle has dominated Essendon recently winning five of the past six contests between the sides. It has also won seven of its past 10 games since 2010. In the Bombers’ favour is their record against the Dockers at Etihad Stadium, where they have won nine of 10 contests. Fremantle’s only win against Essendon at the venue occurred in round two, 2010.

After smashing a very ordinary Carl by 57 points at Etihad in Round 13, the Dockers then put in two very poor performances against Brisbane then Melbourne. Their victory over Port Adelaide was a shock result considering no Fyfe, Sandilands or Ballantyne.  In Darwin against the Demons they were terrible having just 28 Inside 50’s to 78. The forward line lost shape as the game went on and at times players up field had no teammates to kick to. Lyon targeted Ports run and pace and the scores at halftime were 1.7 to 2.3. The game was a classic Lyon arm wrestle – 8 goals to 7 goals. He will attempt to close Essendon down this week and stop their run and ball movement. Expect them to want a similar score line.

Well he’s going to miss this game (thank goodness)…but who is the bloke on the right? 

Last time they met in Round 2 Fremantle sat rebounding defenders in Stephen Hill, Wilson and/or Ryan off the back of mid stoppages. Essendon unfortunately gave them freedom all day to set up attacks. They are all key distributors for the Dockers.  Will this happen again? Or will the Dons do their homework and cut out this supply line with smart placement of their own players?

Since scoring 15 goals against Carl, Fremantle have kicked 9,7 and 8 goals. Lyon corrected his forward line against Port keeping the ground long with tall targets Jones Cox McCarthy and ruckman Darcy who rested deep forward. Young Banfield took Wines and Wingard at times throughout the day and  Mundy returned to the midfield after playing mainly as a forward in 2018 and was terrific with 29 touches. Neale had 33 and is a super hard running player. If he played in Victoria his standing would be much higher.  Fremantle are in transition. Last week they had 9 players with 25 games or less.  Pick 2 Andrew Brayshaw, Sandilands and Ballantyne havent returned.  Pick 5 Cerra has also shown great promise. It will be very interesting to see if the Dockers were going to combine Sandilands and the impressive ruck man in Darcy. Can they both change out of the pocket, ‘old style’? We will never know.

The Correlation

• 6
• 8
• 8
• 7
• 12
• 6

In 6/8 games these are the scores ‘against’ Essendon- the  numbers are superb.

Again another team (GC)  under 10 goals. I continue to promote the DEFENSIVE INTEGRITY theme particularly as when Essendon balance their game they look a strong unit. Amongst this, disappointingly that North ‘found’ nearly 30 shots for goal, but the Dons bounced back; North kicked 16.12 and while the game was a 35 entertainment fest shoot out- not many shoot outs win finals. Essendon’s games against Geelong, GWS, WCE, Lions, Collingwood and Gold Coast were outstanding and a huge correlation with improved performance.

For too long Essendon have been known as a freewheeling excitement machine. That’s worked well over the last 10 or so years!! The Dons have enough creative and exciting players that bring natural excitement in any case so this is NOT a case of stifling excitement. It’s about adding a tougher edge, another dimension to what has been known as a very inconsistent, flaky team at times over the years. When you get balance you get wins. You roll the dice in shootouts and that’s entertaining and great to watch but probably end up with a 50/50 record in shoot outs. But you win when you hold teams to under 10 goals and you only have to look at the last 3 premiers ‘scores against in finals’.

• Against Collingwood the Dons were back on their defensive target only allowing 12.6.78 points against. Normally this is a match winning achievement but the Pies upped the ante and defensively restricted the Dons to 9.8.62. Both sides were actually really good defensively with Pies’ class at the end being the difference.
• The Gold Coast are the worst second half team in the competition and after making the Dons look pretty ordinary they kicked 2.4.16 in that half . They kicked inaccurately with 6.15 but another good team defensive effort from Essendon.

                                                   

‘shifty bugger’ and can coach. What’s he got up his sleeve?

Tip

Initially I was going to say to please be wary of the Hill brothers (Stephen and Bradley) and everything will be ok. But Stephen misses and on the qick Etihad I’d  put McGrath to the damaging Bradley. Do not allow Lyon to position free players off the back of stoppages.

Fremantle are 3/5 (Essendon 4/5) and have scores kicked against them of 7-13-18 (Brisbane Lions) 6 and 9. Great win by the Dockers without Fyfe and Sandilands against a team pushing for top 4. Port sort of do that to you, don’t they? The combined goals against for both of these teams suggest a tight tough low scoring affair. But it is a late afternoon game, roof closed and perfect conditions.  Trained and recovered well after the trip back, I can’t see that happening (although both teams have it in them to produce a ‘shocker’). I expect Essendon to play really well and score efficiently and with purpose, and Fremantle won’t kick enough goals to win. There are a few ‘unknowns’ in the Fremantle line up but they possess some very exciting kids, so be warned and don’t underestimate.

Essendon’s core are in really good form. The football system still has its ups and downs, but the last 8 weeks (6-2) has been so much better.  Fremantle have averaged 9.53 goals in the last 5 games and 10.4 over the course of the season. At Etihad I would be very surprised if they held Essendon with averages like that.

I expect the Dons to average 3-4 goals a quarter against a resilient Dockers, therefore the Dons will finish with  around 14-16  goals for the game and come away with a comfortable 4-6 goal win as they did last week. I just can’t see Fremantle breaking through to score the necessary 100+ points to hold the Dons off.

Robert Shaw

20/7/2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFL Round 17 Gold Coast v Essendon 7.25pm Metricon Stadium. Saturday 14th July

17^th v 12^th and it’s not a mouth-watering prospect by any means. No silver lining in this one folks, so hopefully an opportunity for Essendon to get back on the winners’ list and for the Gold Coast to sense a victory if Dons are flat after a big effort against the Pies. Essendon coach John Worsfold, clearly not impressed with short term fixes, came out strongly when he hinted at future selection direction. It was very positive for a lot of Essendon people. Essendon coach John Worsfold will ignore the ladder and focus on developing a team for future success after his side fell two games off the top-eight pace on Sunday. This is a very strong and positive futuristic statement, one the Dons as a club must embrace. Two games plus over 20% but will beat Gold Coast and Fremantle and probably get tongues wagging again. “So you tell me we’re a chance?” Nope. But they are a chance to put 6-8 games into the outstanding listed talent they have on their books and really give the team great momentum going into the 2019 preseason. Never say never as the next two games are winnable, and Sydney are having huge injury concerns.

But there must be a clear strategy and if things change, they change. Besides, who says the Dons can’t win with the likes of Francis Parish, Ridley and Redman in the side? I’d say it would not only enhance the team but also provide a win-win scenario balancing immediate wins with future success. Beaten by the Tigers 1^st and Collingwood 2^nd. This clearly shows how exasperating Essendon’s season has been as they are clearly on the ‘next line of betting’ somewhere around 5-6-7^th. Unless the Dons come home with a withering run it will be a season of significant underachievement. One will always be able to find positives, but in such an open year it would leave the Essendon hierarchy shaking their head. Expectations for 2018 were realistically quite high.

The Gold Coast have 15 on their injury list including star forward Tom Lynch and it’s hard to see them troubling the Dons who have had 6-7 weeks of good football.

                                      

Travel north after a tough game.

The Dons played a finals type game and were pretty good. There is no rain forecast and temperatures in low to mid 20’s. Because of the clear skies the dew (not the coach) will come in, making ball handling extremely tricky. The Dons will be very flat after such an intense battle and may have to adjust their team to incorporate more run. One thing the Suns can do is run. So travel, 10 degrees warmer than down town Essendon and expected dew are just enough to consider. Dons will win but will need to be mentally on the job. Not the easiest thing coming off a big game and getting on a plane.

Assistant Coaches making way.

Two really good servants of the game in Andy Lovell and Matt Primus were given the indication that their contracts would not be renewed. There may well be a flatness about the coaching panel given the popularity of these two. They will be totally professional no doubt, but it could lead to a less than positive prep for the Essendon game.

Last 5 Meetings

R22, 2017, Essendon 12.18 (90) d Gold Coast 9.3 (57) at Metricon Stadium
R21, 2016, Essendon 11.9 (75) d Gold Coast 9.15 (69) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2016, Gold Coast 17.19 (121) d Essendon 9.6 (60) at Metricon Stadium
R21, 2015, Gold Coast 14.13 (97) d Essendon 14.11 (95) at Metricon Stadium
R22, 2014, Essendon 16.12 (108) d Gold Coast 13.11 (89) at Etihad Stadium

 

Essendon v Collingwood Review

COLLINGWOOD has severely dented Essendon’s already-slim finals hopes, scoring a 16-point victory in a battle royale at the MCG on Sunday to climb back into the top two on the ladder. The Bombers seemed primed to continue their mid-season uprising from a horror 2-6 start to the season when Mitch Brown’s third goal broke the deadlock early in the final term. But the Jordan De Goey-inspired Magpies instead booted five of the last six majors to win a seventh game on the trot – something they last achieved six years ago – by a 12.6 (78) to 9.8 (62) scoreline.

“We’ve been hit hard with injuries in the last six or eight weeks, losing players like (Mason) Redman, (David) Zaharakis, (Patrick) Ambrose today and obviously (Joe) Daniher”. Granted, but the Pies have one of the most significant injury lists in the comp and have lost more players through more injury games than any other team.  Essendon sit mid table on games list through injury.

“It wasn’t one that came easy; it was one that we needed to grind out” said Nathan Buckley.  “It was one that we needed to win in a different manner to some of our recent wins. It makes it more meritorious and enjoyable that we really needed to grind this one out against a clearly motivated opponent who were up and about and playing good footy.”

Skipper Scott Pendlebury (34 disposals, 11 clearances, eight tackles) and his great mate Sidebottom (27, two goals), key pillars in the Magpies’ 2010 flag, were outstanding.

ESSENDON                          1.2          4.5          7.6          9.8 (62)
COLLINGWOOD                4.1          4.4          7.5         12.6 (78)

GOALS
Essendon: Brown 3, McKernan 2, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Langford, Baguley, McGrath
Collingwood: De Goey 3, Sidebottom 2, Stephenson, Grundy, Daicos, Hoskin-Elliott, Mihocek, Cox, Adams

BEST 
Essendon: Merrett, Smith, Heppell, Hurley, McKernan, Goddard
Collingwood: Pendlebury, Grundy, Sidebottom, De Goey, Adams, Crisp, Langdon

 

Gold Coast v North Melbourne Review

Almost four months after both teams started their 2018 campaigns in Cairns, there were no monsoonal conditions under the Etihad Stadium roof, nor was there another Suns upset, as the Kangaroos eased to a comfortable 37-point victory on Sunday. North Melbourne’s 14.11 (95) to 8.10 (58) win kept Brad Scott’s side within touching distance of the top eight, extending Gold Coast’s wretched winless run to 10 matches.

Gold Coast coach will take some belief for his team’s fightback they produced in the second quarter, having started slowly. “I thought we started really sluggish,” Dew said. “We gave them a look, which was disappointing, given we wanted to pick up where we left off last week. I thought our second quarter was probably a picture of what we want to show our fans and community. I think we had probably 11 shots, only nine scoring shots, maybe from 13 inside 50s. I think the players get a little bit of belief from that and hopefully our supporters do, because now it’s just about sustaining and bringing that more often.” Afl.com

NORTH MELBOURNE              4.2       7.4       12.6     14.11 (95)
GOLD COAST                           1.0       5.5       6.7       8.10 (58)

GOALS
North Melbourne: Brown 4, Daw 2, Ahern 2, Higgins, Clarke, Jacobs, Turner, Ziebell, Goldstein
Gold Coast: Wright, Martin, Crossley, Young, Holman, Miller, Sexton, Witts

BEST 
North Melbourne: Thompson, Cunnington, Higgins, Jacobs, Ahern, Brown
Gold Coast: May, Miller, Lyons, Martin

 Injury List

There is mixed injury news for Gold Coast, with skipper Steven May in doubt to play Essendon on Saturday night, while Pearce Hanley and Brayden Fiorini will return from long-term layoffs in the NEAFL. May played out Sunday’s loss to North Melbourne despite injuring his hip in the second quarter, but must get through Gold Coast’s main training on Wednesday night to prove his fitness. In better news for the injury-ravaged club, Hanley (shoulder), Fiorini (leg) and Matt Rosa (hamstring) will play Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium in Saturday afternoon NEAFL action.afl.com

If the impressive skipper May is out he will join fellow bookend Tom Lynchin an injury list that the Suns just wont cover.

The Bombers suffered a big blow this week with leading goalkicker Stringer set for a month on the sidelines with a calf injury. It is a shame for the Bombers, who had carefully managed their prized recruit throughout the season. He is joined by the resolute Patty Ambrose who is done for the year with a bad hamstring tear.  They’ll be hoping Fantasia is passed fit after another niggle ruled him out of Essendon’s loss to Collingwood on Sunday. The good news for the Dons is that Parish, Francis and Ridley had good hit outs and Fantasia will return. I can’t see the Dons losing out too much to be honest, but I accept that Stringer has been good and will be hard to replace.

                                                   

Selection

Essendon resisted the temptation to do the straight Ambrose for Francis swap. Parish performed very well in the VFL and is a good inclusion while Fantasia adds plenty as a half forward mid. Francis has been named as an emergency so may be some chance. Gold Coast stability is interesting as they chose the same side. They played some good footy in patches and maybe they are confident of an upset. If Steve May is a late withdrawl it will make life very difficult for the Suns.

From the Stats Sheet

Dons still a high disposal team for 12^th place inside 50m. Coming from Sydney, Stuart Dew would put a high premium on tackling but just maybe the GC 2^nd spot on the tackling ladder shows they have done a lot of chasing in 2018. If we went on pure stats last week then Collingwood’s were outstanding and on that fact were going to be too good. The same can’t be said for GC. Uncontested Possession is poor, which is somewhat surprising given the GC traditional exciting running patterns at times.

Essendon numbers continue to be more consistent across the spread of indicators but just like football games it’s just as hard to make ground when your initial season stats are well below AFL ‘best practice’.

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	GOLD COAST
Disposals	8th	18th
Marks	6th	18th
Tackles	6th	2nd
Tackles Inside Forw.50	9th	14th
Goals	12th 11.8	18th 9.7
Contested Possessions	11th	10th
Uncontested Poss.	5th	18th
Disposal Effectiveness	5th	18th
Marks Inside 50	6th	18th
Clearances	9th	9th
Centre Clearances	13th	17th
Stoppages	9th	4th
Handballs	8th	17th
Points Against	11th  1295	17th 1456
Inside 50’s	12th  51	17th 47
Forward 50 Chains	10th	15th
%	94 (12th)	62.7 (4th)

 

Game x Game Summaries

A very mixed bag from both clubs in a tight contested game. Essendon’s inside 50’s were poor but the inside 50’s against were excellent. They kept the Pies to a ‘losing score’ but couldn’t score themselves.  Efficiency of both clubs inside 50 was in the low 40%. Shows there was some good pressure being exerted by both teams. Dons still have a high kick to HB ratio as do the Pies, so may have explained the low Inside 50’s, plus the pressure.  For both clubs it wasn’t a high tackling game which is pretty unusual, while the Pies held sway in the Contested Ball situation.

 

STATISTIC	v. WCE	COMMENT	v. NORTH	COMMENT	v. PIES	COMMENT
STOPPAGES	29-23	Very Good	24-15	Excellent	23-32	Poor
CENT CLEARANCES	11-9	Good	17-18	Good	12-10	Good
INSIDE 50	45 **	Poor (Win)	61	Very Good	46	Poor
INSIDE 50 AGAINST	59	Poor	55	Average	47	Excellent
SCORE AGAINST	6.16.52	Excellent	16.12.108	Poor	12.6.78	Very Good
MARKS INSIDE 50	12-9	Average	13	Average	12	Average
TACKLES	61-65	Average	68-55	Good	56-56	Average
CONTESTED POSS.	153-127	Excellent	144-137	Very Good	135-152	Average
UNCONSTESTED POSS.	250-195	Excellent	261-221	Very Good	253-229	Very good
MARKS AGAINST FORW 50	9	Excellent	16	Average	12	Good
UNCONTEST MARK AGAINST	79	Good	90	Average	73	Very good
TACKLES FORW 50	6	Poor	17-9	Excellent	11-5	Good
KICK/HB RATIO	241-151	Good	214-187	Average	207-176	Average
EFFICENCY INSIDE 50	51%-42%	Very Good	56%-56%	Very Good	43%	Poor
MARKS TOTAL	121-87	Great	91-105	Average	92-88	Good
SCORE FOR	12.8	Average	19.11	Excellent	9.8.62	Poor

 

The Suns

Stuart Dew and the Suns were on the board early in round one defeating NM at a nearly submerged Cazaly Stadium in Cairns and then backed it up again the following week against Carlton.  After beating the Lions in round 5 they sat 3/2. That was April 22nd. Since then there have been very few rays of sunshine.  In fact they have won just 19 times out their last 80 games. Recently could’ve beaten Saints, but have had some mediocre performances against Pies, Hawks and North.  Injuries to Handley, Barlow, Rosa, Day and Hall robs them of experience, while Captain Tom Lynch is their leading goal kicker with 20 but is done for the year – and possibly has played his last game at GCS.  Next best is exciting talent Martin with 14. Wright has returned to the team and is a capable big strong forward on his day and Young has shown over his career he can hit the scoreboard.

Overall though the forward line lacks potency. Over the last month they have scored just 11,5,8 and 8 goals. They are 18th for points for in the AFL. Ave of 61 points per game. Sexton tagged Higgins for part of the game last week.  The midfield consists of Swallow Miller Brodie and Lyons who has returned and averages 27 touches a week over the last month.   In defence, Thompson usually gets the best opposition forward as they try to allow May to play more as the zone off interceptor.  Weller cost them pick two and a hefty long term contract. A big price for a solid/ small mid/defender. The resilient Rischetelli adds experience in defence alongside Harbrow who has averaged 25 disposals over the last 4 weeks. Their average age is 22 (AFL 23). Their average games is 61 (AFL 80). Percentage is 62.7

 

Summary

I continue to promote the DEFENSIVE INTEGRITY theme particularly as when Essendon balance their game they look a strong unit. . These are the last 7 scores kicked against Essendon. Disappointing that North ‘found’ nearly 30 shots for goal, but the Dons bounced back well against the Pies.

• 12.52
• 14.62
• 12.114 (Tigers)
• 12.60
• 8.50
• North kicked 16.12 and while the game was a 35 entertainment fest shoot outs not many shoot outs win finals. Great for the media, but not sustainable. Essendon’s games against Geelong, GWS, WCE and Lions FAR more impressive with 6-8-8-7 goals against. You roll the dice in shootouts and that’s entertaining and great to watch. Probably end up with a 50/50 record in shoot outs. But you win when you hold teams to under 10 goals and you only have to look at the last 3 premiers ‘scores against in finals’.
• Against Collingwood the Dons were back on their defensive target only allowing 12.6.78 points against. Normally this is a match winning achievement but the Pies upped the ante and defensively restricted the Dons to 9.8.62. Both sides actually really good defensively with Pies class at the end being the difference.
• This was tight tough finals football and nothing to be ashamed in losing that. Frustrating, yep, because the Dons could’ve snuck away with four points. Better ‘finals type’ performance than a shootout.

The Issue here will be Tactical Fatigue.

Clubs talk about recovery and people generally think about the battered bodies and bruises. Players get over that in a couple of days unless of course a strain or a significant ‘corky’. Clearly then the greatest influencer of performance is Tactical Fatigue in that players are drained and do not come up mentally. This will be Essendon’s greatest challenge and clearly explains the coaches after match comments of ‘we didn’t come to play’. Player’s minds must be trained this week more so than an ice bath and a massage in the recovery room. Time away from the club is very important in this phase. A lethargic start by the Dons will give this young and experienced Suns line up a taste for the contest. After that, anything can happen.

Tip

How do GC win? Dons not being switched on allowing GC to seize early momentum and build confidence. They gain some belief and momentum throughout the game, and Essendon will not be able to turn it around if in fact GC get out to a good lead.

They need to be very good and organised with their forward press as this has consistently led to overuse, low Inside 50’s and indecisive ball movement from the Dons. Essendon have been a very good team with the initiative. They are not a great team that has to adjust during play. A very disciplined performance from Merrett’s opponent is important. Head to head with Smith and they just can afford to let Saad (who they know) and McKenna (can be erratic) run free.

On the stats sheet and player personnel missing then it’s very hard to see the GC getting within a goal a quarter (4 goals minimum) of Essendon. On June 10^th the Dons were very professional and held off a dangerous Brisbane team at the Gabba. While they didn’t play exceptionally well, and were challenged, they were always mentally in the game and their concentration and focus levels were excellent.  I still maintain ‘tactical fatigue’ will be Essendon’s issue.

Depending on slippery conditions and Essendon’s mental approach, this may be a struggle particularly if they start slow. There are a number of factors the team would have prepared for so I’m tipping the Dons somewhere between 4 goals (24 points) and 7 goals (42 points). That would be a reasonable day (night) at the office to get back on the plane with 4 points. Night game, dewy, I’m not expecting a scintillating display….just a professional one.

 

 

 

Robert Shaw

13/7/2018

 

Umpiring and Essendon. An open letter to Essendon, (and other club), people.

 

Dear football followers,

Across the board the umpiring has been confusing, inconsistent and -in my opinion- far too difficult to manage. Umpires are charged with managing the hardest game to umpire in the world, with constant adjustments and tweaks, experimentation and change. Even as we communicate there is so much talk of more change, starting points and wider goal squares. I have given them a 6/10 this year under extreme difficulty. I’m not an umpire apologist. In my playing and coaching days they were the ‘white maggots’. But we did talk and communicate our thoughts after matches with the two teams and always left on good terms and a handshake. Arms around umps on the ground was commonplace and banter- although going too far at times- was funny and clever. Now the fines and the reports stop all this.

I have to be an ‘umpire’s man’, because I want to be.  I teach and coach 15-18 years old. I have to set an example and I have to teach RESPECT, CONTROL and RESTRAINT. Have I thought that umpiring decisions influenced the result of a Brighton Grammar game, an Essendon game or a Clarence v Glenorchy game down in my old home town? You bet I have. But not one of those umpires cheated.

In 1991 as a young coach of Fitzroy, we were 1-9 after ten games and travelled to Footy Park, Adelaide. Mission impossible against a juggernaut. There were 21 players 10 staff and 35 supporters versus 50,000. We lead all night against superior forces. We lead with 90 seconds on the clock. The Umpire was Anton McKernan who now umpires in the APS school system in which my team Brighton Grammar plays.  McKernan in that last 90 seconds paid 3 free kicks to the Crows. One to Andrew Jarman, one I think to David Marshall and certainly the last one (against Paul Roos for holding the ball)  to Rod Jameson who calmly slotted the gaol AFTER the siren. Heartbroken. I dont remember a team giving as much and losing. Fitzroy people painted slogans on AFL House in Jolimont. I understand the emotion of people as they invest so heavily in the love and passion for their club. I never thought of conspiracy theories or accusations of cheating against McKernan. I thought he umpired the last 90 seconds very poorly. The replay on YouTube will confirm this.  McKernan is a man of integrity and character. He was in 91, and he is now.

I challenge the conspiracy theorists strongly. Essendon have been on the back end of lopsided numbers, inconsistency, confusion and even incompetence. That’s it. To say that the AFL is complicit in this or consorting to influence games as some sort of continual payback at Essendon is sheer lunacy, rubbish. Absolute rubbish. Accusations of cheating are incorrect. Umpires get it badly wrong but LOOK PAST THAT.  Our teams and coaches get it badly wrong. Maybe the current crop of umpires is low on talent, over coached, too defensive, too attacking, under coached or poorly developed. Heard that before, I bet. It could be your own footy team.  Injuries to Essendon, a bloke called Scott Pendlebury and the brilliance of DeGoey had far greater influence on the end result than any populist recurring theme about dishonest umpiring. I concede crowd influence at packed opposition stadiums like Perth and Adelaide. I have witnessed that as a coach. I’m not sure how the game gets around that. Human nature or just better, tougher umpires.

The theorists had little to say when Essendon comprehensively outplayed finals aspirant North Melbourne despite conceding free kicks 11-22. Hey, maybe we played good footy and our crowd was vocal in their support?!? Great win-crap free kick count. We dominated one of the premiership favourites, WCE by 28 points on their own dung hill. Yep, in Perth, where the free kick count was 17-33. Another emphatic statement made. Not on Twitter or FB, just the old fashioned way, by the people on the stands (our support) and the people on the ground (our players and coaches/support staff).  Great win –crap free kick count. Never Complain: Never Explain.

The Essendon I know and grew up with is beyond that. We fought our own battles internally, solved our own problems on AND off the field, took care of each other, played hard (win or lose) and never bloody whinged. We won premierships. That’s why we are Essendon, so please stop dragging us down into the land other clubs have frequened. I know it’s  bloody hard to cop because you look at the numbers, and they are exceptionally lopsided. But we win because our players suck it up and push through that. Go through procedure and channels which the club is doing but don’t descend to average and mediocre comments. Use ‘us against them’ in the correct way; in the stands and on the ground.

Unfortunately in 14 ½ years the level of play has been mediocre at best without a finals win. The saga embroiled us all and changed lives as we know. I rode that wave too, remember? I get it totally. They are my friends. But that, combined with a below average finals record, has ‘made us all’ finger pointers and complainers. A generation and a half only know Essendon as this and that’s so sad. So those of you that know better and know Essendon, please preach to the generations emerging that this is not the real Essendon and we will eventually return as a power. But if you influence the young generation with these, at times, vile and totally unnecessary accusations, you are doing our next group of young people a major disservice. Is this how we act??

There is no directive, there is no cheating and there is no conspiracy theory to influence games by umpires. There are no phone calls coming from AFL House to umpire coaches to ‘get Essendon’. I share your frustrations Essendon people, but you are beyond that IMO. You are so wrong to target good honest people going about their work in a game they love with the label of cheats. They may not be good enough and may not be able to handle the pressure, or make poor decisions. Gee they sound just like players!

I have enjoyed Twitter immensely and the great friendships I have made (mostly with people I have never met). I enjoy ALL club people, but obviously have a greater passion for Essendon and subsequently its people. These claims are getting us nowhere and diminish our standing when we are trying so hard to win back respect on and off the field. Emotion is a wonderful thing. Use it powerfully but use it wisely to drive your club to be better. You have every right to demand higher standards from your club. Focus on that and ensure  you are using your ‘power’ constructively.

The conspiracy theorists may even suggest the AFL “got to Shawry”. Let me assure you that, due to my vociferous support of Tasmania’s own team, I’m pretty sure I find myself in the black book in the top drawer at AFL House. However, if you don’t want to hear my honest thought on this matter you have the option to press the button in the right hand corner, which says UNFOLLOW. But this is me and this is what I stand for. It’s not a contest or for debate. It’s me. I’ve read yours, now you can read mine. Thats fair.

 

Essendon

Suaviter in Modo, Fortiter in Re

(Gently in manner, resolute in deed)

 

Yours sincerely

Shawry