Round 4 AFL Essendon v Port Adelaide Sunday April 15th Etihad 1.10pm

Introduction

“But they will face a week of discussion on their form and finals prospects, and often play better when they are not expected to win”.

I probably put this in the same category as the assessment early in the year that Essendon ‘play a similar brand to AFLX’. Both comments hurt.
This quote courtesy of Cal Twomey of afl.com.au sort of sums it all up: “The easiest thing to do in footy is to win when all expectations are off”.  ‘The Essendon family’ have been guilty of high expectations while the better strategy would have been to ‘under quote and over deliver’. Some of the expectation is well deserved given the influx and balance of talent. Only round three, but already there is a nervousness regarding the current form.  Like a ‘dodgy’ real estate agent, were the Essendon hierarchy guilty of bumping up the price and going too early with ‘sold, sold, sold’? If they did, it showed considerable inexperience in handling expectations.

For that reason, Port will be wary of Essendon’s best form, despite it not really being evident so far in 2018. Given the inconsistency from week to week- and even quarter to quarter- who would actually be surprised if this talented group were sent out in a strong competitive mood and decided ‘today was the day’? I for one don’t think for one minute that they can’t win this. And isn’t that just so disappointing that the Dons need a bloody good kick in the pants and an excuse to play well?

Coaching has changed somewhat, but the basic parameters are quite clear: Don’t coach on talent, structure, formations or circus act tactics. Together with the senior player leadership, always present EFFORT, PERSISTENCE and FIGHTING QUALITIES, and then all the other stuff will fall nicely into place.

Essendon at the moment (only three games in) is not about questions on the coaching or condemning the players for a perceived lack of fight (which I strongly reject). It’s about a collaborative approach at selection, training and meetings about a) the standards by which they judge (themselves) and b) the standards by which they want to be judged (the football world). Both scenarios centre on one word: RESPECT.

This can turn around very, very quickly.

Review Essendon v Western Bulldogs

To me it looks like a page from a chart on  ‘complete lack of work rate’. Scores conceded, uncontested marks, marks against in forward 50 and minus 100 uncontested possessions shows a lack of organisation to protect/defend the ground and also they were simply out run and out spread. Combination of lack of application, confidence to execute by INSTINCT (which is training)  and organisational  structure (coaching).

Statistic	Numbers	Comment	Port v Brisbane
Stoppages	10-22	Average	19-29
Centre Clearances	17-8	Excellent	14-12
Inside 50	44	Poor	55-43
Inside 50 Against	56	Average	43
Score Conceded	34 shots 100+	Poor	22 shots 92 points
Marks Inside 50	13	Average	16-8
Tackles	43	Poor	45-61
Contested Possession	124-122	Level	137-141
Scores by Turnovers	WB 9.17.71	Poor
Marks against Forw.50	23	Poor	8
Uncontested marks	WB took 140 UCM	***Unacceptable
Uncontested Possess.	WB +100 UCP	***Unacceptable

The Dogs also ticked the boxes in their selection/philosophy prep as was articulated last week. Would the Dons consider such a simple game plan to thwart and upset the undefeated Port?

• Pick your best defence and build through
• Stay in the game. Give the opposition the impression that ‘you are not going to go away’. This adds a layer of pressure if Essendon are off mentally and expect to win without doing the necessary work
• Play experienced players in their best positions
• Narrow the preparation focus to 3-4 team focus points only
• Give the team some legitimate forward targets so they have confidence
• Get as many players in as possible that are familiar with each other’s game regardless of form. Confidence and comfort in those around you will help
• Win the INSIDE contest

LAST FIVE TIMES

The record is pretty good.

R12, 2017, Essendon 19.17 (131) d Port Adelaide 8.13 (61) at Etihad Stadium
R3, 2016, Port Adelaide 17.10 (112) d Essendon 7.9 (51) at Adelaide Oval
R17, 2015, Port Adelaide 20.9 (129) d Essendon 17.14 (116) at Etihad Stadium
R16, 2014, Essendon 8.14 (62) d Port Adelaide 7.18 (60) at Adelaide Oval
R15, 2013, Essendon 18.10 (118) d Port Adelaide 12.16 (88) at Etihad Stadium

• Late year Hooker and Daniher kicked 9 between them, Essendon had the game won by half-time. Even with Cale Hooker training with the backline group during the week I wonder if they are tempted to leave the forward combination in place one more time?
• The Bombers are struggling defensively so far in 2018. They are in the bottom 6 defence in the competition, conceding nearly 100 points a game. They have to get that down to mid 80’s like they did against the Crows. The Power only give up 74 points per game in comparison.
• Essendon need to improve their stoppage and clearance work. Look for Port to have a big advantage at the stoppages. The Power are ranked sixth in the AFL for clearances (an average of 41 a game) so far this season, while the Bombers have battled in that area, being second last at an average of 29.7 a game.
• But the good news is that Essendon has dominated Port Adelaide recently at Etihad Stadium, winning four of the past five contests between the sides at the venue. It’s a good place for Essendon to play these blokes.
• Win the INSIDE contest against some big bodied mids. No Sam Powell-Pepper helps.

                                              

The Medical Room

Great to see Ambrose back in Essendon’s team and I certainly hope he gets to the line. The Ambrose, Hooker and Hurley combo is Essendon’s best structured tall backline. Colyer, Dea , Francis and Gleeson face more time on the sidelines, while it is great to see Laverde back playing football. Personally I would ‘rush’ him back in and leave him in the side for an extended run off HBF-Wing-HFF or Mid. What a great opportunity to develop this young man’s multi talents!

Broadbent, Ryder and Pittard are three very good players out of Port’s best team, while the rampaging talents of Powell-Pepper will have to cool his heels on the sidelines after a drinking indiscretion. Vice-captain Ollie Wines rolled his right ankle late in the second quarter and went straight to the bench for treatment. The tough midfielder returned  and finished the game.

Selection

Hope Matt Guelfi gets a run. He’s named, so that’s great. Dons need a first gamer to inject some enthusiasm. Good selection. Solid bench options for the Dons. 1st game, 50th game or 350th, what a great honour to wear this jumper. Go well young man! I’d go Parish, Myers, J Merrett and Langford as my bench. ALL can go through mid and Guelfi replaces Green.

Port will keep a balanced and structured side looking for 4-0. One, maybe two changes at most. Former Gold Coast half back Trent Mckenzie’s booming kick at Etihad pushes him to the front of the line I reckon. He has deficiencies in contested and accountability but if he gets it 20 times it ends up with Charlie Dixon. Amon and Neade are smart and clever.

Saving Zach Merrett

Round 1 v Adelaide. Head knock and replaced

Round 2 v Fremantle. Opponent Bailey Banfield 10 kicks 11 handballs

Round 3 v Bulldoggs Opponent Mitch Honeychurch 10 kicks 3 handballs

Bit like Saving Private Ryan. You need a good team of supportive people who are prepared to go out there and look after you. It hasn’t been the perfect start for the young midfielder but, hey, welcome to AFL football. There are issues he has to work on, change and adapt to, so in effect it’s universal recognition that he’s a great player . But there is ONE certainty. He can’t do it by himself and needs:

1. a) A clear strategy from coaches; and
2. b) Assistance from team mates out on the ground.

So let’s look at the options available to him and the team. Zach is a natural left footer, is not overly big (like Cripps or Martin) and is sharp without having explosive speed. His kicking in setting up Essendon’s next passage of play is elite. So given those characteristics of his game, he is technically easy (ier) to tag. So other clubs have had enough and are now cutting out that left foot.

So what are the options available to the coaches and Merrett? How could they go about breaking a tag?

• Work in teams. He appears isolated to fight his own battles. He should work in rotation partnerships like Cotchin-Lambert-Martin and Caddy.
• Hopefully he is a student of the game. Watch Tom Mitchell. Mitchell is a left footer and is 1.81 tall and 79kg and Merrett 1.80 and 78kg. So no physical difference. So what can Merrett learn from Mitchell? What makes Mitchell un-tag-able?
• Change starting positions. Play as a sweeper at stoppages. Change your angle. Start 10 m off the square and hit the pack at full pace. Start off the back of the square, wing or even start half-forward. THEN move into natural on ball position. AT LEAST try to unbalance the opposition thinking and structure.
• Play as 7^th defender facing goal.
• Sacrifice your own game. Tag Boak this week and work off him. Break the Ebert tag. Ebert is paying $1.05 to go to Merrett this week. IF Zach goes to Boak for example, it may create a 2 v 1 and leave an Essendon player free.
• Balance your game. At the moment 30% of his possessions are ‘in contested play’. It’s too much outside stuff which is tagable. If he gets it to 50/50 inside/outside possession he will be a better player.
• Go to stoppage depending on opponent. Opponent may be purely an aerobic runner as a tagger. Take him to uncomfortable congested places.
• Don’t go to stoppages: the opposite. Player may be an inside tagger. Sit him off stoppages and run him more.
• Isolate forward: Take the tagger forward. Make the tagger feel uncomfortable. 3 mins here and there. Break it up.
• Teach him to play off the HBF for 5-7 min a quarter. That will break the tag and as that position is extremely important then it will keep him in the game.
• Or just play as the loose man behind the ball as 7^th . Essendon haven’t been able to deal with this in games so far so try to turn a negative into a positive. Also it is much easier to play the game facing goal than it is with your back to goal.
• Finally, ‘Pay the fine’. “In today’s age when even careless acts can bring suspensions, a player such as Merrett can’t rely on teammates to dispense justice and protect him as they might have a decade ago” (Jake Niall Age Sport).
• Acceptance though is poor by Essendon. Ok he hasn’t got Solomon, Hardwick or the Johnsons out there who were not backward in coming forward to protect James Hird. But that was a decade ago- more’s the pity.  Someone, though, needs to step in and ‘pay the fine’. So do we use the excuse that it’s a generational thing or is it sadly that they just don’t care enough?  Merrett’s taggers have gone through a game without anyone ‘laying a glove on them’! Sit someone on their backside (not thug act)  and pay the $2000. It’s a great investment, otherwise clubs will walk over you for the rest of the year.

 

Port Adelaide do use a ‘run-with’/tagger in Brad Ebert. His roles so far have been a combination of Kennedy/Parker (Sydney) Fyfe ( Fremantle) and Zorko ( Brisbane). Port’s system is reasonably sophisticated as Ebert, due to his outstanding aerobic capacity, does the majority of around the ground tagging while Wines can share inside work with Powell-Pepper (club suspension). So going on the numbers and the players targeted by Port with Ebert, Essendon coaches have had a week to prepare a plan to support Zach Merrett.

Ebert v Merrett 75% chance

Ebert v Heppell  15% chance

Ebert v Zaharakis 10%  chance

Early Statistical Analysis

Week 4-6 will usually give you a very good a mathematical sample of trends, but given one team is 3-0 and the other is 1-2, do the basic stats give us an early indication as to how each is tracking? Centre Clearances are up to AFL standard but contested work, general clearances, stoppages and Inside 50’s, points against and conceding Inside 50’s are tracking in a similar theme to 2017.

STATISTIC	ESSENDON	PORT ADELAIDE
Disposals	14th	2nd
Marks	13th	8th
Tackles	9th	7th
Tackles Inside Forw.50	16th	8th
Goals	10th	6th
Contested Possessions	14th	7th
Uncontested Poss.	9th	4th
Disposal Effectiveness	13th	12th
Marks Inside 50	4th	6th
Clearances	17th	6th
Centre Clearances	5th	10th
Stoppages	18th	4th
Inside 50	16th	6th
Points Against	5th Highest	18th
Inside 50’s	16th (49)	6th (56.3)

Port Adelaide Notes

• Port Adelaide are the second most experienced team overall with an average 74.15 games per player. On their list they have 17 players who have played 100 games or more.
• Their recruiting added Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop, Lindsay Thomas and Jack Watts, so depth will not be an issue for the Power. Wines, Boak, Robbie Gray, Wingard, Powell-Pepper (internal suspension) and the inform Polec give the Power a formidable on-ball division. The move of Hamish Hartlett to HBF has provided exceptional kicking and distribution skills. Paddy Ryder is a great loss and Stefan Martin from Brisbane dominated the game against Westhoff and Charlie Dixon.
• Essendon need to prepare for Justin Westhoff behind the ball at specific times of the game, and also for Steven Motlop running through off back of square, in a bid to free himself up.
• Brisbane could’ve pinched it. Lions’ ruckman Stefan Martin – the best player on the ground – had the last kick of the game as he attempted to find a teammate inside the forward 50, but Power defender Dougal Howard grabbed the mark as the final siren went. Allen Christensen had the chance to win it with just over a minute remaining, but his snap fell just short with Jared Polec taking a match-saving mark on the line.
• Port didn’t play that well yet had 11 different goal kickers. They do have options.
• Winger Polec was outstanding with a team-high 29 possessions, Ollie Wines overcame an ankle scare to dominate in tight (25 possessions, 11 contested), Hamish Hartlett had 26 off half-back, while Brad Ebert (23 possessions, 14 contested) restricted Lions star Dayne Zorko to 19 touches.

Problems and solutions.

Kevin Sheedy used to say this to us as young developing coaches: ‘don’t give me the problem; give me a solution’

So…in that vein….

If Essendon played Hooker, McGrath and Hurley in defence that is two All Australians and the reigning NAB Rising Star. If they played Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and BJ Goddard together ‘in the middle’ (they do), that’s another three All Australians …AND if they played Jake Stringer and Joe Daniher inside forward 50 together that’s ANOTHER two All Australians. It’s a fantastic, even spread across the ground.

Infuse that with a carefully selected and developed combination (opposition specific) Ambrose, Laverde, Langford, Saad, Zaharakis, McDonald –Tipungwuti, Fantasia, Stewart, Parish, Smith, Redman, Bellchambers, McKenna, Gleeson, Clarke, Guelfi, Myers and Mutch, and on paper you have semblance of structure.  I would and would’ve backed the coaches in to develop Langford and Laverde as 193cm and 90kg mids. One got injured and one got dropped. They represent the layer of midfielders Essendon are missing even if they pinch hit through there, as they have the capacity and versatility to play other spots. I would have tried to develop Clarke as a strong bodied inside run with player. Mutch, Redman and Guelfi need to be given experience even if it’s off the bench.

The standard you walk past, is the standard you accept.

Finally, Essendon’s forward six must be changed either structurally, physically and/or its mentality. Green’s lack of effort /chase on Johannisen’s running should not be rewarded with selection.  He spends a lot of time walking and there is little or no influence on the ball going down the ground. Players have to transition up and down the ground and provide support for their midfield and the defence. It is simply why they get sliced apart. The scoring profile of the AFL has changed. While the scoring sources come from behind (off HBF) — it’s a forward half game now. You’ve got to lock the ball in, increase ‘time in forward half’, gain intercepts and gain repeat entries to score. IF Essendon were one of the best teams in the comp at this phase of the game (like Richmond adjusted in 2017) they would be a top 4-6 team.

Tip

Port Adelaide by less than 24 points in a close game. But probably Essendon by 11! I think Port will play very good football as a 4-0 start will be brilliant for them. BUT, doesn’t it depend totally on which Essendon turn up? And that’s the bane of existence for Essendon supporters.I basically have no idea.

Win or lose, you have to know what you are going to get.

**Thanks to Jake Niall @JakeNiallTHEAGE, Cal Twomey afl.com.au, Glenn Luff from Champion Data and David King @davidking34  for providing pieces of information that I could source.

 Robert Shaw 13/04/2018