Round 3 AFL Essendon v Western Bulldogs Sunday 8th April 3.20 Etihad Stadium

Introduction

Big question marks and one of these teams is going to breathe a sigh of relief. The Dogs are 0-2 with a percentage of 47.6 and 18^th on the ladder. One season and two games ago they lifted the premiership cup. The Dons, full of hype and expectation, have played one finals like quarter out of eight. I said ‘finals like’; NOT ‘ok’ quarters.   One of these teams gets off the hook. Fremantle kicked 100 points for the first time in 12 months. The last time they kicked 100 was against Essendon! Let’s  see if EFC create Defensive Integrity on the track and in the meeting rooms at Tullamarine.

The premiers of 2016 dropped to 10^th with 11-11 and a percentage of 97% last year. Not a catastrophic fall from grace, but significant that a premier team misses the eight the following year. They have ‘backed that up’ with this year’s start.

Picken (concussion), Stringer, Dickson, T Boyd, Smith and Liberatore. Add Robert Murphy, Matthew Boyd and Mitch Wallis to that group before they were injured/retired and the Dogs team is a shell. Luke Beveridge has some extraordinary credits in the bank but if he continues to make too many withdrawals, Peter Gordon will surely take away his credit card. Beveridge was brilliant in 2016, but his selection policy and constant changes have been somewhat confusing; I acknowledge that these observations are from the grandstand.  The decision to play Easton Wood forward was calamitous. He has proved he can coach; there is no need to remind us! He needs to pick his best team on paper in their best positions and go back to some really basic stuff. Injuries have tied his hands, so it’s a great test for Luke.

The Dons have played one ‘finals type’ quarter out of eight. Both sets of supporters turn up not exactly knowing what will be dished up. Bulldogs can’t score; Dons can’t defend.

                

Review Essendon v Fremantle.

Yep, they are only basic stats, but they are indicators of great inconsistency. Essendon’s numbers on the stat sheet mirrors their inconsistency Saturday by Saturday. There are KPI and there are standards.  Essendon’s basic standards dropped considerably from their game against the Grand Finalist of last year. If someone can work out why footballers can change so dramatically in their application, focus and mental toughness, you would be a coach for life. Essendon just can’t brush this aside. Ross Lyon is a seriously good coach and the Dons’ coaches’ box had no answer. It has to be mid-week and pre game. It’s the mental preparation.

To win this game Essendon do not have to do a great deal. When I say that, I mean they have to be compact (in structure) and play to their trademark/plan and KPI. Last year the instruction white board at the breaks reads thus: (Binoculars are handy)

1. Work hard to get outside
2. Get in deep from the ‘launch pad’ under pressure
3. Control CB (contested ball) …or Centre Bounce
4. The first player controls the intent in the contest.

This is an example of what players will be reminded about. 2-3-4 are good solid directions but ‘work hard to get outside’ as listed #1, I’m not sure. I’m all for spread and break but win the contest first! It’s interesting what clubs will write on these indicator boards, and this is one example of what Essendon had in one game. These four points could have been indicators of improvement or priority guidelines.

**Players/Teams can receive feedback at the breaks as to how their main KPI’s are tracking. Clubs can then re-focus on areas that are down and prioritise for the next quarter. Players also have computer feedback on the bench. All players are very aware of how their ‘trademark statistics’ are progressing in comparison to bench marks.

NB: The other whiteboard is generally used for match ups and starting line ups for the next quarter. Coaches do have the capacity to inform all players and there is no excuse for not knowing the exact position throughout a game.

The photo of Sheeds shows him reminding the players of statistical KPI.

 

Basic stat comparisons and comment from last week’s game.

Statistic	EFC Numbers	Comment	Bulldogs v WCE
Total stoppages	13-21	Need improvement	18-18 good
Centre Clearances	17-11	Very Good	15-13 good
Inside 50	45	Poor	54 Fair
Inside 50 Against	56	Average	58 Poor
Score Conceded	100+	Poor	31 shots poor
Marks Inside 50	9-13	Poor	19-23
Tackles	72-65	Reactionary	42 poor
Contested Possession	142-151	Lost	110-136 poor

Medical Room

Jordan Roughead came off after a heavy clash early in the third term and didn’t reappear for the rest of the game. He is concussed so this is a huge blow, as not only can he ruck, but he can play back and forward.  So can Jackson Trengove, but he is out for 3 weeks. Mitch Wallis, Tory Dickson and Jack Redpath are not injured. Get them in. Reliable defender Marcus Adams is out for a couple of months. The great Dale Morris is missing. Bob Murphy, Matt Boyd are all gone. Young Briggs is in the VFL and they try Easton Wood up forward. The impressive Joel Hamling is at Fremantle. Stability and availability were the key words at Bulldogs Match Committee.

Ambrose, Gleeson, Colyer and Francis are still out for Essendon, so if Myers and Fantasia get to the line on Sunday (positive indications), the Dons are starting to get a few back from Doc Reid’s office. Michael Hurley just walked laps on Thursday morning, but with a Sunday game he will be fine. Fantasia and Myers appeared to get through training well.

Selection

Do the Dogs just ‘play your best side’ or do you ring the changes?  For the Dons, both Fantasia and Myers trained well and are important. The high ground pace that Fantasia can provide will be critical in this game. Myers- tall and strong- adds a body to a small Essendon midfield. Structurally, Essendon have to assist Merrett and Heppell or they won’t make the finishing line. There are not too many games I would consider playing without Baguley. Redman, Baguley and J Merrett have been emergencies,at times, but as you have seen, the Dons are not prone to adventurous selections. In the end, Baguley and McKernan added to experienced ‘ins’, to a settled squad. Essendon traditionally pick the most experienced players. In this game, so are the Dogs. They need back line support, forward targets and some grunt on the inside. Essendon will drop Langford and I’m not sure of who else. On team balance it should be Green (Fantasia) but get a gut feel it could be Begley!! That would really surprise. Both boys would seriously benefit from an extended 6 week stay in the seniors. Only then can you find if you have a player, or not. Essendon will pick an ‘immediate team’ (for the NOW) and get a result. Therefore there is no place for Redman unfortunately.

The Bulldogs have added five premiership players and their big, key forward. Boyd, Wallis, Dickson, Redpath and Briggs. Dale Morris spoke glowingly about the introduction of youth into Bulldog line-up; Tim English, Billy Gowers, Ed Richards and Aaron Naughton. They have been selected before some far more experience players and Beveridge will have to decide on his team balance this week. The premiership players will play.

Western Bulldogs notes.

It’s not particularly pleasant viewing.

• The Dogs were -28 contested footy against WCE. That’s just not their trademark so look to big focus in this area. They are down -46 on contested  over two games.
• They have conceded an average of 64 inside 50’s. Their forward pressure and team defence has gone. They have had 13 tackles in forward 50 in two games.
• Their opponents have taken 45 marks inside 50 in past two games.
• They are averaging 60 points ‘For’.
• Tom Boyd, Mitch Wallis and Tory Dickson are in the VFL
• Only one premiership player in defence (Wood) so what do they do in Round 1? Move him forward!
• Rucks have been out tapped. English, Roughead and Trengove down 13/54
• They are playing with 13 players < 55 games.
• No tough men in Picken, Liberatore, Wallis and Smith. In Essendon they meet a team not necessarily rated as being a tough team, physically or mentally.
• Senior players around the rooms and distributed around the ground will give confidence.

Dogs appear to have ticked these boxes at the selection table. (NB: only my proof reader knows I wrote this midweek, following Dogs 0-2 start!! Haha!)

How to win a game (Bulldogs) with absolute backs to wall.

• Pick your best defence and build through
• Stay in the game. Give the opposition impression that ‘you are not going to go away’. This adds a layer of pressure if Essendon are off mentally and expect’ to win without doing the necessary work.Dons are prone to poor mental lapses in prparation..
• Play experienced players in their best positions
• Narrow the preparation focus to 3-4 team focus points only
• Don’t ‘over coach’
• Give the team some legitimate forward targets so they have confidence. (Boyd-Dickson?)
• Pick ‘fighters’. They miss Picken, Smith and Libba and I don’t get why Wallis has been out
• Get as many players in as possible that are familiar with each other’s game, regardless of form. Confidence and comfort in those around you will help
• Senior players around the rooms and distributed around the ground will give the group confidence

Summary and Tip

Marcus Bontempelli is the highest ranked Bulldog in AFL Ratings, in 12th position overall while Zach Merrett is the best-placed Bomber, sitting in 21^st. They are different players and with Bontempelli being required to push forward, this matchup is unlikely.  Jason Johannisen saved his best game in 2017 against the Dons; surely the Dons’ brains trust will be prepared for this if lightning happens to strike twice. Last time they met, Shane Biggs had 29 touches and 11 marks, while Joe Daniher kicked six goals for the Bombers.

Seriously, I’d be more confident if Essendon were playing Hawthorn at the MCG. Where’s the trust, the application, the structural organisation, the mental toughness?  It’s confirmed; talent is never enough. The Dogs have given themselves a chance with their selection policy. Can they get it done as a team on the day? There are not many teams that can actually say they are bringing in 4-5 premiership players. It automatically makes the Dogs dangerous and their side/squad now includes 12 premiership players. I’d play every one of them and hope they can turn the clock back.

Essendon will win this by between 3 and 6 goals. They are too settled, have too much forward power, and the addition of Fantasia and Myers gives them a nice balance. They will be far more efficient than the Dogs and have more options in their front half.  Both these players compliment a midfield heavily reliant on Heppell and Merrett.  Merrett was well held after half time last week and Fremantle took over. They need a plan to assist Merrett, or rotate him through other positions to break the tag. (Centre,wing, forward) .They will not, sorry, read ‘should not’, not be challenged in the contested ball due to Picken, Liberatore and Clay Smith’s absence. Roughead and Trengove are big outs for the Dogs.

From an independent perspective, I would love the Dogs to turn back the clock and show ‘us’ that old Bulldog manic forward pressure. Let’s see how Essendon would go then! At the end of the day this game will hinge on two things IMO:

1. Both team’s turnover rate off half back and midfield i.e a) capacity to create turnover and b) self inflicted turnovers without pressure.
2. Essendons multi options in attack.

“Talent is never enough”

The upset just won’t happen. It won’t, will it???

Dons by 24 points

Robert Shaw 06/04/2018